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Showing posts with label ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS. Show all posts

Thursday, March 17, 2011

ARE WE PREPARED FOR AN EARTHQUAKE IN NORTHEAST ?

It is a fact that Northeast is a land of earthquake. Our population hav to learn to live with it like Japanese and Californian have learnt. We have experienced earthquake every year .
The most of those earth quake are smaller magnitude . Yet Northeast has experienced two great earthquakes in the year 1897 and in the year 1950. These two earthquakes were amongst the most violent earthquakes in the world. The intensity earth quake of 1897 was 8.7 . the earthquake of 1950 had the intensity of 8.6. It could be noticed that the occurrence of both the earth quakes were during summer months. The first one was in the month of June and the second one was in the month of August. According to a few geophysicists Northeast may experience great earth movement within fifty to sixty years. Now the question is are we ready for it?

The last great earthquake occurred on August 15, 1950, and had a magnitude of 8.6. The epicenter was actually located near Rima, in Tibet . However, the earthquake as destructive in both Assam and Tibet, and 1,526 people were killed.
In an attempt to further uncover the seismic history of Northeast India, field studies were conducted by scientists with the NGRI, Bhubaneswar discovered signs of soil liquefaction including sills and sand volcanoes inside of at least twelve trenches in alluvial fans and on the Buri Dihing River Valley that were formed by past seismic activity. Radiocarbon dating identified the deposits at roughly 500 years old, which would correspond with a recorded earthquake in 1548 .
An article in Science, published in response to the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, calculated that 70 percent of the Himalayas could experience an extremely powerful earthquake. The prediction came from research of the historical records from the area as well as the presumption that since the 1950 earthquake enough slippage has taken place for a large earthquake to occur. The 1898 earth quake was still bigger though loss of human life was minimal the damage to the property was enormous as pr records. 1898 devastated lower Assam including kamrup and Goalpara the earth quake of 1950 devastated upper Assam.
This time we have to be prepared for both the areas to experience earthquake .Though according to experts Meghalaya and Lower Assam could be worst victim this time. Keeping aside the technicalities of earth movements to geologists let us concentrate what are the precaution human need to adhere to. In earlier earth quake though loss of human life was not very high any earth quake now may result in huge loss of life due to increase in population. As per the calculation Assam may experience again a great earth quake sooner or later this summer or next. We need to be prepared for that.
We need to learn from the experience of Japan. In Assam whenever earthquake comes every boy runs out of house to open to save themselves. In Japan such behaviors has been a taboo. From the childhood every child is taught to behave in a discipline manner. They are taught not to rush out of house. In India every year lots of people die for every body tries to rush out whenever pandemonium breaks out. the most death occurs due to suffocation and trampling by others feet.. Since earth quake is imminent all the schools from primary level to College level should now teach the student how to behave when earthquake strikes.
The most of the Assam type house has fewer hazards to fall apart compared to concrete houses. The concrete houses are also safe provided that have been built to withstand earth quake shocks. It is imperative to get the construction of the house checked up soon. People need to take insurance cover for earthquake. During earth quake cooking of food should be suspended. It is also told that people should keep away from overhand fans and false ceiling etc. In the house much more unsecured places are open car garages which are not fortified by walls.
Perhaps our architects have studied the problems of earthquake. In many countries where earth quakes are frequently felt most houses avoid brick and mortar interior walls. Whether similar construction would help in Assam or not could be studied. Earth quake anfd its cause should be compulsorily taught from primary level to higher secondary level. In all engineering colleges earthquake engineering should be compulsory in the first two years. There is almost no awareness among people of Northeast as to how to behave when earthquake struck. The mock earthquake drill should be introduced in al educational institute now.
If we take seriously prediction of Geologist and Geophysicists that North east would be visited by a powerful earth quake every fifty to sixty years this is the time for a major earthquake. We need to seriously think how to survive such catastrophe. It is not only government but also NGOS and educational institute need to play a proactive role in educating mass to safeguard them from earth quake menace.

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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

A MAID CAN BE A MILLIONAIRE IF SHE IS EARNEST

Nobody can live under the sun without making provisions for food, shelter and cloth. For human being to provide for above provisions money is necessary .Even monks need money for sustenance. The great prophet like Ramakrishna Paramhangsha once said that no proper worship would be possible with empty stomach. To keep feedings one’s own self human beings would need money even when they stop earning. To enable people to meet both the ends it is imperative to invest money keeping in view risk adjusted return. People, now a day, have become a part of longer life. This necessitated the emergence of Personal Finance in creation of wealth.
This book is an attempt to make our young citizens much more investment savvy. It is not a book for spoon feeding. It is a book to empower young investors to start saving and ultimately become a Millionaire. This is not just a copy book or book of notes which would make investors millionaire automatically. No, it would not. This is a book of empowerment.
The saving and investment are not an easy task. The patience, robust common sense and capability to take risk would be the most required virtues to be a successful Millionaire. This book is meant for inculcating those virtues.. It narrates the example of successful persons. The stories need to be read carefully and develop own skill. If you are serious this book will inspire you to develop a balanced and beautiful mind.

The risk taking capacity of each individual is unique. While making investment this virtue of risk adjusted return for each individual shall have to be calculated depending on the individual capacity. No coaching class will be able to create a common platform for all types of saving and investment. This book would act as the compendium for empowerment for personal finance. The book has case studies as stories so that young investors understand steps to be taken in lucid manner. There is no short cut to become a millionaire unless you are a magician, inheritor of wealth, owner of lottery or a black marketer. This book proves wealth can be created in an honest way. Even a domestic help can become a millionaire, with strong will force and proper guidance.

So read this blog, try to understand the implication and create your own strategies and model and go ahead and make money. For making money you need self restrain & wisdom .No outsider can make money for you. It would be your own perception that would help you to become wealthy.

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Literacy of investor is a must before starting investment

All investors are not always literate. Even a postgraduate in science, technology and arts may not be well versed in saving and investment. Before starting investment everyone must know where not to invest and where you must invest. Investment is a personal requirements depending on the goals of life. Beside investing in debt instrument it become imperative to invest some money in equity to beat the inflationary pressure. Befo9re jumping into share market all investors must learn to invest in equity through Mutual funds. Investment in equity is a long term requirement. No investment in equity should be done for short term. This is my sincere advice to keep away from Share market in March 2011 as a big fall is eminent. Let the fall start and stablise at lower value of Sensex and Nifty. Then investment should be done through Systematic Investment Route

We all tend to look at the returns of the mutual fund before taking a decision to invest our hard-earned money in it. The returns actually denote the appreciation/depreciation of the NAV of the fund. Unfortunately, NAV (Net Asset Value) of the fund is grossly misunderstood. Here we attempt to clear the myth surrounding NAV. More and more people have started investing in Mutual funds now a days. This is a good habit. But generally many investors make mistake by choosing low NAV product thinking that lower the the NAV greater is the return. This is a wrong perception. The NAV of a mutual fund is grossly misunderstood by the investors as well as the mutual fund distributors.The Low NAV does not indicate the fund is cheap, nor does it impact the returns in any way. So always remember this when selecting fund for investment. Rather focus on the quality of fund, which will greatly impact your returns. Always choose a fund house with long standing history of dividend and growth.Whenever a new fund is launched it cannot have past record or history of performance hence it is always better to rely on old faithfully fund who have done reasonably well over the years. Many investors subscribe to the new fund thinking low NAV is highly prized unit. It is not correct. It is to be understood that even high NAV might give better return most of the time. What is more important is to choose such a fund who have given consistent returns months after month and year after year.


The NAV or Net Asset Value is the aggregate of the market price of all the shares contained in the portfolio, inclusive of cash after deducting the liabilities divided by the sum of units issued. It can also be called as the book value of the unit of the fund.

NAV = sum of the shares in portfolio + cash - liabilities / sum of units issued .


Many people tend to think that the fund with low NAV is much cheaper than the NAV of fund with higher NAV. So people tend to think that if a fund has a NAV of Rs. 50, it is cheaper than the similar fund with the NAV of Rs. 80. This misconception stems from the fact that most people tend to equate NAV with the market price of the share. As a result, there have been instances when people have redeemed their investments in well performing funds to invest in NFOs. Even many mutual fund salesmen tend to mislead people by telling them that funds with low NAV are cheaper than those with high NAVs, thus enticing them to invest in the funds that they are selling.

There is a big difference between NAV of mutual fund and market price of the share market. In case of the share of the company, its market price is decided by the stock exchange. While deciding the price of the share, the company fundamentals, view of the company’s future performance and the demand-supply situation. Due to this, the market price of the share normally differs from its book value. But in case of a mutual fund, the concept of market value is absent. So when you purchase mutual fund units, you are buying at NAV, which is simply the book value. So it implies you are paying the correct price of the assets. This price could be Rs. 50 or Rs. 500, but the concept of higher or lower price is non-existent.


While it is commonly believed that funds with lower NAVs will yield better returns, it is not true. Suppose there are 2 funds, with NAVs of Rs. 50 and Rs. 100 respectively. You invest Rs. 1000 in both of them. So you get 20 and 10 units respectively. Assume both the funds give a return of 50% after one year. So the new NAVs of these funds become Rs. 75 and Rs. 150 respectively. Now the value of your investment in first fund becomes Rs. 1500 and that in the second fund also becomes Rs. 1500. Hence the returns in both the cases are same, irrespective of the NAV of the fund. Instead, it the quality of fund that will greatly impact your returns.

NAV of a mutual fund is grossly misunderstood by the investors as well as the mutual fund. Low NAV does not indicate the fund is cheap, nor does it impact the returns in any way. So always remember this when selecting fund for investment. Rather focus on the quality of fund, which will greatly impact your return.


The mutual fund is a good way of developing investment habits.Always mutual fund should be bought in terms of their star rating and not in the recommendation of brokers.Always depend on the recommendation of your advisers. But the best thing is to study and decide what is good for you. Always buy diversified mutual fund instead of thematic funds. Some time thematic funds give high return .The power sector once gave very high return but suddenly it might come down. The wise decision would be to rely on the value analysis of the rating agencies.The most neutral and wise agencies are Value research.com and Money control .com. Before investing study their rating and take a conscious decision. We need to keep it in mind low NAV don't provide us the scope of high return always!


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WOULD GOLD RULE THE WORLD ALSO IN FUTURE

The Gold at present rules the monetary system of the world only indirectly. All the countries though depend on the deposit of gold in their vault to produce legal tender required by them yet pure gold standard is almost obsolete now.. The world has abandoned the gold standard in favour of so-called "paper money," and only a diminishing group on the far right continues to call for its return. However, if mainstream economists (on both the left and the right) have anything to say about it, there will never be a return to "that barbarous relic," as John Maynard Keynes called gold over 60 years ago. However, many countries buy and sale gold as the situation demands. India once sold out their Gold deposit to meet the monetary contingency and recently it did buy gold twice from Russia to strengthen its power to produce more legal tender. Though there are costlier commodities like diamond and platinum yet only Gold has become synonym with power. The Gold has reached this position of strength due to both practical and psychological value. Many people also relate with Gold better than any other commodities. If Gold is require by most nations, it is also favorites of vast number of Indian population

Now, the questions arises whether buying of Gold is a better personal investment strategy as the share market is not doing well for sometime now. On the contrary the gold prices have steadily gone up. Many investors have asked whether to buy Gold coins or Gold ETF... I always recommended individual citizens that for investment purpose the buying of GOLD ETF is better than buying solid Gold. It remains secure at least cost. But in case of marriage and life style enhancement, it is better to buy solid Gold.

Now, it is quite likely that most advisers do brief investors that gold prices never fall; it is an ultra safe investment. The countries around the world have positioned their currencies on Gold exchange parity by printing money, therefore gold will never fall in value, and by virtue of these operation gold ETF is risk free. But, you need to be aware that these are merely opinions.

It is surely a fact that Gold prices could continue to rise, or they can drop like a stone.Investors can make money, but they can lose money as well. However, most times investors would make money – of course with moderate gains. It cannot match the return of equity in long run. So individual investors can invest in Gold only about 10% to 15% of your total investment portfolio

How much profit should be expected from Gold over a period of five years? My wild guess is 10% to 18%.The history and statistics told us that in ten years equity and art form are the best investment followed by houses and Gold.

There are several gold ETF in our country. With the exception of Quantum – 1 unit of every gold ETF represents 1 gram of gold. If that’s the case then why does the price of these gold ETFs differ?

Gold ETF owns Gold, debt and other liquid instruments and cash. The combined value of these assets divided by the number of units in the gold ETF constitutes the NAV of the ETF. The NAV of gold ETF can be seen on its website, so you can see that the Benchmark gold ETF GOLDBEES had a NAV of 20000 in March 2011 .However, since an ETF trades in the stock exchange and there is a different price at every tick the price of the ETF can be different from its NAV. The NSE website shows that the last traded price on that day for GOLDBEES was Rs.20010/-

This means that the ETF was going at a discount of about Rs. 10 at that point. There are big market participants who are engaged in actively trading the ETF to bring the market price closer to the NAV and gain from any arbitrage opportunities available.

All ETFs have expenses that are paid out by selling gold holdings or using the income from their debt holdings, so although theoretically one unit of gold ETF represents a gram of gold – in reality the gold holdings are slightly lower due to the expenses. The higher the expenses, the lower would be the NAV, and consequently the trading price of the ETF.

A good example of this is the Reliance gold ETF which had a NAV of 1920.20 on 13th Feb 2011, and was trading at Rs. 1913 on that date.So, expenses eat into the NAV of the various ETFs, and affect their prices.

This question keeps popping up from time to time which is the best gold ETF in India. According to me right now the Gold BeeS ETF from Benchmark Funds has the lowest expense ratio of 1%. Quantum Funds comes second with 1.25%. All the other funds charge higher expenses. The lower the expenses – the better it is because it leaves more on the table for investors.

I found that – Gold BeeS, which has the lowest expenses, also has the highest volume, and by a large margin too. If I had to invest in a Gold ETF – it would be this. In case someone does not have d’mat account then he should buy Gold funds from HDFC, Reliance or UTI. He can also think of buying Gold Coins as well from banks. However, the bank don’t buy back Gold. Investors need to sale it to Jewelers at lower than market cost despite its great purity.

Continued international depression has made Gold a hero presently. But a time may come when countries may not be required to depend on GOLD for their monetary policies a new commodity may take its place in future. What would be that product is not known to anyone yet. So the gold bugs would have to resolve historical and theoretical challenges of King-Midas proportions before they could ever reinstate the gold standard. But if a workable gold standard requires a tremendous amount of design, effort, regulation and safeguards, we might as well use fiat money, which is already simple and enjoys a successful track record.

Friday, September 17, 2010

FARMLAND REFORM IS A MUST FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH

The former Federal Reserve Chairman Allan Greenspan of USA recently reiterated that India has potential for the robust economic growth and thereby change the face of the world provided it takes up the agriculture reform in proper perspective. It is the productivity of the Farmland sector that has to be enhanced first, he felt. In a state like Assam which is endowed with great water resources and fertile land the enhanced productivity would set in motion great growth rate. There would be surplus land if productivity is ensured. By utilizing 20% of this excess land the capital intensive manufacturing enterprises could be ushered in unleashing chain reaction that would create near full employment situation.. This is not a euphoric dream but a possible hard life reality. India’s potential for growth is awesome, according to Dr. Greenspan.

The foremost requirement would be to overhaul the entire structure of Indian agriculture. To achieve the enhanced productivity three elements would be required i.e. (a ) developed infrastructure, (b) consolidation of fragmented holdings and (c) better varieties of seeds suiting Indian condition .Primarily the agricultural land valuation need to be enhanced first. The archaic land valuation needs to be looked at. The rate of premium payment of 25% cost of agriculture to land less cultivator must be enhanced whenever the land is acquired by government or sold by the landowners for the purpose industrial development. The Government need to pass a law revaluing the cost of land of the state and the rate of payment to landless agricultural workers whenever land changes hand. The landless workers or his nominee must be made employees of the new enterprise whenever agriculture land is made to surrender for development, till he is sixty years old. In North India value of farm land have gone up by 5000% n ten years. Real Estate agents have made money while poor agriculturists have remained poor. This situation needs to be salvaged.

It is an accepted practice of industry for revaluation of asset from time to time. Why not this practice should be adhered to in case of agriculture now ? For the revaluation of agricultural land the authority could be handed over specialist bank like NABARD. The land could be revalued in terms of inflation rate, utilization purpose and potential to earn out of that property for next twenty years. It is a fact that land would be required for industrial development. None can stop that process if high economic growth needs to be achieved. Agriculture alone cannot give the required economic boost. In modern time secondary sector and service sector would play the greater role. But initially the primary sector have to provide push by enhancing the productivity of land. To enhance the productivity and reset agricultural infrastructure the private sector could be made the partner of progress.

.Now, government should encourage joint sector farming, providing power and irrigational facilities to the farmers. The easy financial access alone would not help unless backed by infrastructure. The developed nations are using laser technology instead of tractors to till the lands. This helps in optimizing the use of various inputs such as water, seeds, fertilizers, etc. The problem is that Indian farmers cannot afford this technology and unless government and corporate sectors comes in support for agricultural infrastructure. The development of agriculture would remain a dream only ,if involvement of corporate sector is denied as a joint sector partners of landless laborer and that of land lords.

.Now, government should encourage joint sector farming, providing power and irrigational facilities to the farmers. The easy financial access alone would not help unless backed by infrastructure. The involvement of would generate employment for educated class.
The developed nations are using laser technology instead of tractors to till the lands. This helps in optimizing the use of various inputs such as water, seeds, fertilizers, etc. The problem is that Indian farmers cannot afford this technology and unless government and corporate sectors comes in support for agricultural infrastructure. The development of agriculture would remain a dream only ,if involvement of corporate sector is denied as a joint sector partners of landless laborer and that of land lords.

. In India the subsidy amount is very high and investment is too low. The investment in Agriculture is only 20% of Agriculture GDP. The Government has always considered increasing the subsidy but did not care enough for the enhancement of investment. The procurement prices were revised from time to time. The cultivator should get fair price no doubt. But market should be allowed to settle the Fair prices when subsidy have been given .More importantly the role of middlemen could be controlled. The need of the Day now is to see that AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES FLOW DIRECTLY FROM Cultivator to market without much intervention of the middlemen. Perhaps elimination of middlemen would be impossible task for State Government due to political compulsion .This is the reason why in some of the states large scale grocery stores have become unsuccessful despite involvement of big industrial houses...
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister advocates the role of corporate sector in agriculture and says that activities other than food grain production like commercial crops, horticulture etc. have contributed most to agricultural GDP. The council recommends removal of subsidies related to grain procurement and REVAMPING of Public Distribution System.
From Africa to Asia, countries are scrambling to buy or lease land overseas to grow crops and feed their people. China, which has to feed the world’s largest population, has taken the lead by contracting land in Tanzania, Laos, Kazakhstan, Brazil and others. India has set its eyes on Uruguay and Paraguay, while South Korea is looking for farming deals in Sudan and Siberia. Libya and Egypt for their part have been negotiating deals to lease land in Ukraine. Assam Government must enhance the value of Farm land. The large entrepreneurs must be encouraged to cultivate in collaboration with local land lords and cultivators. Agricultural sector of India is mainly covered by small and marginal farmers, so our government should promote small scale agriculture. Corporate sector could be ushered in as an experiment in joint sector basis where land lord and cultivators becoming partners with corporate HOUSES on a selective basis. Assam can experiment with this model and outshine Hariyana and Punjab.
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SHARE MARKET BOOMS BUT NEEDS CAUTIOUS STEPS NOW

After along time most middle class investors are smiling again. The flood gates of telephone calls have started pouring in from our readers. “What should I do? I have doubled the amount. Should I redeem it or keep the money invested”? My reply to young investors was to stay invested if they do not want the money for next four years. There would be correction but again the market would go up. For seniors, whose risk appetite are low, they need to switch money to liquid fund and park the money for a while to invest when market correct after sometime. Another gentleman asked “Can I redeem the money and keep it in debt fund for a while and reinvest when market goes down”? It is a good idea no doubt, but if money is kept invested in Debt fund you cannot shift to another fund within one year without paying exit load. So if you redeem it now keep in saving bank or in liquid fund so that you can switch moment market goes down. The pessimism in the investment community is understandable as markets are nowhere near being called cheap. The price to earnings (PE) ratios are well over 22-23 and the continued fund flows has made sure the selling pressures from domestic fund houses hasn't been a deterrent for bulls. The new action on rep rate by RBI would also hit the Mutual Fund market, Debt funds and MIPs, which in turn would affect the senior citizens.

According to mutual fund industry sources, the selling pressures from domestic institutions have been on account of redemption pressures from individual investors.

In fact, individual investor behaviour has been that of caution in the last two years. Having been caught on the wrong foot in 2008, the small investor is in no mood to think long-term . As a result, during every uptrend many have been quick to encash profits or cut down losses (those who built portfolio in 2007-08 ). In the process, they failed to ride on the good market mood of the last few years.



The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty crossed a landmark each during the early session of trading on Monday. While the Sensex breached the 19,500 level, the Nifty crossed 5,800 marks on strong industrial output numbers from Asian and the US economies. But keep it in Mind that P/E ratio is not as high as it was during January 2008. At that time P/E ratio was 28. So there is actually still steam there and market may go up further. The market is sure to correct as soon as liquidity would come down.
At 11 am on Monday, the Sensex was 288 points up at 19,088, while the Nifty was 85 point up at 5,725. Banking stocks showed the sharpest jump in the early session as BSE Bankex and Bank Nifty had risen by close 3 per cent at 11 am. The small and mid cap stocks, however, lagged both the Nifty and the Sensex.

This rally is liquidity driven and is not fundamental driven alone. The participation from retail investors of the country is minimal. They remained hesitant even now to invest. Of course, there is a strong possibility of a deep correction at any time fro 10 to 20% at any time. So our advice to hesitant lot is to keep away from equity mutual fund. Perhaps they can invest in Long term MIPs where return is around 9 to 12% from time to time. There are three good funds in this segment according to value research, Birla sunlife MIP .5, Reliance MIP and HDFC MIP. These funds have got 5 to 25% equity and balance is in debt. My personal favourites are HDFC and Reliance MIP for retired person. HDFC MIP has paid in 71 times dividend in 77 months. The average annual dividends for last six years are around 11%, much more than bank FD, Company FD and SCSS but with little risk.

My sincere advice to our readers is not to invest any more once the sensex reaches 20,000 marks or little lower. That would be time to redeem the investment if they have earned good profit and have completed at least one year or more. Keep your money handy to invest when market goes down. There is a strong possibility of correction. Invest all the money when correction set in. People who have done STP or SIP do not have to worry at all. They should keep on investing while share market goes down. The long term investors should not be afraid of. They would surely make money.
Dinesh Thakkar, chairman and managing director, Angel Broking said: “Strong IIP numbers, better than expected month of July 2010 fired the bourse, which inched up to cross the 19,000 mark. Going forward, with the Agriculture growth accelerating on back of good monsoons, which along with the robust growth in the manufacturing and the services sector should aid Indian economy to deliver an 8.5 per cent GDP growth in FY2011.”
We need to understand that share market is a risky field and correction is inevitable. Warren buffet makes money because the share market is a volatile field and he enters the market when others fly away. He invests in companies whose functioning he understand well. It is impossible for common people to understand so it would be wise to depend on their personal financial advisers always. Investors need to study well the money magazine and business pages of news papers and form their own opinion. On the flip side the key concern area inflation is also likely to moderate as we go forward, resulting in most of the monetary tightening measures being front ended. This along with the strong earnings growth momentum, wherein the Sensex earnings are expected to grow at a 18 per cent CAGR over FY2010-12, the Indian equities would continue to be sweet spot and continue to gradually move upwards in the long run. It short and medium term there could be correction.
It is necessary for senior citizen to understand that they need not invest all the money in equity related instrument . They can invest only 20 to 30% money in equity. The balance money could be kept invested in PPF, SCSS and Banks FD and long term debt fund. While investing in equity they should invest mostly in balanced fund like HDFC prudence or Reliance balanced fund. They can invest also in MIP of HDFC and Reliance or in Birla.
Younger readers can take risk and can invest a larger amount in equity. But they too need not put all the eggs in one basket. The good diversified funds are IDFC premier equity, HDFC equity and top 200 beside Reliance growth and Birla Dividend yield.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

India is NRI's destination for Investment

The Economic Growth for next decade is for emerging economies and for markets of the developing world. The BRICK countries (Brazil,Russia, India and China) are front runners in this march of Economic Growth. After recession of 2008 India, China and Brazil have recovered faster than America and European Countries. It is a fact that Greece, Portugal and Spain are still not out of the wood. European market community are trying to find out strategy how to help Greece and Portugal. The Economic growth of U.K. is also not as good as it was during the last decade. In such a scenario India has recovered from Economic turmoil and is expected to grow faster in next decade. The return on investment is expected to be higher in our country.Hence lot of FII are flying into our market for investment for much higher return. In such a situation whether our own children residing abroad should participate in Indian market and take advantage of higher return?


With increasing opportunities for work cropping up worldwide, more and more Indians are opting to migrate to other countries in the search for greener pastures. However, being Indians we still feel the need to stay connected to the place of our birth and therefore, we try to make investments in India through different avenues. Let’s take a look at how Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) can make investments in India. It is understood reliably that after Greece it is Spain which is feeling thepain and pressure of governmental Debt. Spain has declared ,for the first time in the half a century, 5% cut in all wages and salaries of Government employees. This has created turmoil. yet the financial condition is not expected to improve . Some of the economist feel Euro currency might get disintegrated and the4 situation could be salvaged if some of the countries goes back to their own independent old currencies system and can devalue their currencies to improve balance of payments. Under the circumstances it is expected though Indian share market would also fall with European and American market yet in the longer run Indian browses would provide better financial results..


Many of our readers have asked us whether their NRI children can participate in Indian market? The NRIs can make investments in all the investments options which are available to Resident Indians. However, Persons of Indian Origin can only make investments in non-agricultural businesses in the country. One of my friend ,who was Vice Principal of Rodean of girls School of England. She is frok Assam and was a NRI. She started investing through standard chartered Bank, Guwahati since 2004 and by 2008 she got 40% return. Ultimately units were redeemed with profit and was taken back in terms of Pound sterling. This is the exact position how our NRI children can be benefited by investing in India ,Assam. But investment must be for longer term.


It is a fact that even NRIs can invest in shares and stocks by directly subscribing to shares and debentures of Indian companies on a repatriable or non-repatriable basis,through the Portfolio Investment Scheme and through government securities, certificates and units of UTI through remittances from their domestic accounts or remittances from abroad

Many people have asked from which account their children can participate in Indian market ?

An NRI needs to use either a NRE Account (Non-Resident External Rupee Account) or a NRO Account (Non-Resident Ordinary Rupee Account) beside FCNR Account (Foreign Currency Non Resident Account)

It should be clearly understood that the 24% Scheme allows Indian companies, except those engaged in agricultural activities, to issue up to 24% of their shares and debentures to NRIs with repatriation benefits.

Similarly, the 40% scheme allows for purchase of equity, preference shares and convertible debentures not exceeding 51% of the face value of each issue. Repatriation of upto 40% of the new issue is allowed. Under this scheme, NRIs can invest in new projects or in expansion and diversification projects of existing companies.

Jugal Kakoty, a resident of Shillong, have asked as whether his children living abroad can participate in banks deposit and market investment?

We need to explain that NRIs can invest in:Bank Deposits as well as in Secondary markets through Portfolio investment in equity shares/convertible debenture. They can also invest in Mutual funds provided that amount is invested out of NRE/FCNR/NRO account or by inward remittance. They can also invest in Domestic (NRO) funds through deposits in Indian companies (including Non Banking Finance Companies if they are registered with Reserve Bank of India) on non repatriation basis upto 3 years subject to certain formalities to be completed by the concerned company. All the NRI can buy Immovable property provided that the amount is not invested for the purchase of agricultural land, plantation property or farm house and investments are made from fresh inward remittance or existing non resident account .

There are tax benefit for NRI also as under:


* Bank Deposits investment in shares, units of Mutual Funds etc. are exempt from wealth tax in India
* Interest earned on NRE and FCNR accounts is completely tax-free.

It now appears that in case Our NRI children want to earn higher return compared to Europe and America it would be prudent to invest in Emerging market rather than in develop countries. Despite all the rosy picture during next decade in India I would recommend not to invest their entire money in emerging market. It would be prudent to invest only 25% of their surplus money in emerging market like India and balance could be kept invested in the country where they live.It is always easier to handle wealth where they live rather than at a distance place even that is their parents place of resident

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Sunday, April 11, 2010

WHITHER INDUSTRIALISATION IN MODERN ASSAM

After a period of long silence it is not only Government of India, but Pan Indian industrialists are having a re-look at the state of Assam. It is a courtship after a long spell. Last time industrialist came to the state, from out side Assam, and did set up industries was during 1960 ,during the regime of Kamakhya Prasad Tripathy, then Industries Minister of Assam. Slowly some of the industrial enterprises like Assam Hardboard, Associated industries, spinning Mills near Tezpur and some plywood plants closed down its shutters .A few survived like Steel Worth , India Carbon and Assam carbon who made the state their head quarters. Why industrialists stopped coming to Assam despite its great natural, mineral and weaving potential? Is it due to transport bottleneck or lack of indigenous entrepreneurial skills, financial shyness or lack of Political will? Perhaps all of those contributed to keep the state of Assam Industrially backward.
In 1947, just before the Indian independence, Assam was one of the most industrially developed states of the country. It contributed handsomely to the economic growth of the country. There was no debate on this fact. But as the time passed by Assam became one of the most laggard state in the country .Even Agriculture sector have become so bad that its negative growth have pulled down the total economic growth figure of the state. Successive Government tried to develop the state industrially but failed. Why? Is this connectivity from the mainland? Or Weak political thrust, Non availability of rich indigenous businessmen, Lack of business culture must have contributed to the poor growth. The state also suffered in earlier years, despite returning maximum number of MPS, from the state belonging to party in power in the center, for poor vocabulary of the representatives in Hindi and English and lack of dashing political personalities.Even during the regime of MoniulHoque Chaowdhury, (as Union Industries Minister), D.K. Barooah(as Union Petroleum Minister) and F. A. Ahmed ( as union Minister) could not really provide big boost for industrial development, of the state.

The picture is changing now with new breed of political personality who are suave, intelligent, and capable of calling spade and spade and having excellent communication skill. The recent meeting of the investment advisory board is the pointer to such a change. For the first time in the industrial history of Assam so May Industrial leaders of the country not only assembled in the state but signed MOUs and set up foundation stone. The top industrialist Ratan Tata felt the changes in the Assam’s horizon. He not only saw the potential but sniffed the fresh air of changing industrial climate. The state government, especially the Ministry of State industry must have done a very hard home work to organize such a meet. It deserve accolades from the people of Assam . I am sure the setting up of Five star facility would not only provide a place of stay from business people like Naraynamurthi and his team but to tourist from abroad.. The setting up of this facility would ensure visit of tourist from Italy , France and Japan who accept TAJ ‘s hospitality . The setting of Taj”s five start facility should not be considered merely as a Hotel businessmen.. But it would perhaps be a nucleus for development of tourism. (Even TCS could come over after sometime to set up their research centre next to IIT, Guwahati. The entire north Guwahati belt could be dedicated to knowledge city and research centres.) The tourist Group, sponsored through TAJ channel, generally visit Jaipur, Agra and Delhi , known as Golden triangle of North India . Now this triangle would form an alliance with North Eastern triangle with Guwahati, Kaziranga and Tawang. as the destinations. The visit of Mazuli’s Heritage site by foreign tourists Groups are in card. With Tatas showing interest in the state other industrial houses would sure to follow the path.. It is a proven fact that one third of IT specialists of Bangalore, are from NorthEast .With 30% capital subsidy and great tax holidays for five years were attracting industrialist to have look at the state of Assam. What they wanted was a Leader. For the first time the leadership has been provided for. Now there is a hope in the air.
The industries that played a major role to earn the state’s revenue are tea processing and petroleum refineries. The industrial development in Assam is mainly repressed by the state’s physical and political isolation. Assam is a landlocked state in the eastern periphery of India . It has connected to the mainland by narrow corridor, which is prone to floods and cyclones. Moreover, poor transportation infrastructure is another reason for its curtailment. Since Assam is a major producer of crude oil and natural gas in India , several oilfields are found in its upper region. But real revenues would now come from Tourism, IT sectors and engineering if Mahendra’s could be persuaded to set up an automobile CKD assembly plant for their vehicle including Boleros and Scorpios now which have a great market in northeast and across the border in Burma, Thailand and Bangladesh. Keshub Mahadra, the grand old man of Mahindra family had a vision to setup an automobile assembly unit in Assam long back. It was pushed back due to uncertainties during yester years. With Ananda Mahindra’s dynamism now this vision of his father may get revived, as I understood from the industries Minister of the state when I visited him during last week.

It is matter great satisfaction that Bang, chairman of Hindusthan Lever, which has a cosmetics plant (HLL) at Doom Doomdooma, reassured expansion of activities here. Sadly numerous industries are confronting loss because of poor infrastructure and arrogant and indiscipline labour force in a few industrial enterprise of the state.. It is not only the government but Assam Media have also a great role to play in ushering in industrial harmony and productivity. It is a matter of concern that despite grave unemployment situation in the state there are vast pool of unemployable persons. These segment need to be trained up. The petrochemical industries would be a great success provided the indigenous manpower is trained up now immediately so that as the project get completed these human resources get trained and employable. During my recent visit to Assam one of the established industrialist told me that he had set up a plant in Margherita but found that employable workmen are in short supply. The local Mafias are trying to push Child labour who are school drop out. Unless these problems are addressed the industrial development would remain a dream.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

hUNGER ON THE HORIZON: hOW TO FACE THE CHALLENGE ?

Hunger is seen on the horizon of the world by none other than UNO. It would engulf around one billion people unless common people of developed nations contribute personally in cash. The appeal for help has been circulated already.
It is now a fact that unless Public distribution system of our country is revamped and strong measures are taken to augment agriculture sector, as per the signals now received, a famine like situation may develop and devastate even our country. Assam would not be an exception to this scene. Till now though two neighboring states of Assam, were experiencing famine in the past, there was no record for Assam experiencing such a bleak situation. The time has changed. Assam has now negative growth rate in agriculture sector. It might trigger famine like situation unless government steps in. The world Food Programme, facing a fund shortage and UN has appealed to individual persons for cash donation for the first time of its existence. The Head of UN Food Body felt if one billion persons of developed world donate just RS. 69/- a week or one euro($1.50) it would be enough to end world’s hunger and famine. So WFP has issued internet appeal to all individual to contribute. If anyone , from our country, want to contribute WFP’S Delhi office can be contacted..

Addressing WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM’ in New Delhi recently, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee admitted:
"There is a need of generating strong domestic demand until the robust recovery all over the world, particularly in the developed world takes place.”
Mukherjee repeated his pledge for massive investments in agriculture sector and infrastructure, and acknowledged that it would not be easy for Asia's third largest economy to compensate for the loss in exports through domestic demand. "It is not easy for us to diversify the market overnight and make up the loss so we shall have to wait for some time," he said.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of United Nations has recently issued a report which reveals that currently there are 75 million (7.5 crore) people in the world are victim of famine and if the current crisis of price rise persists this count may reach the total of 920.25 million (92.25 crore )
India at present is facing the very harsh situations where poorest of the poor of our country have to go to bed hungry. But at this crucial time when the country expects some stringent steps from the government’s side, it is defending itself by saying that food crisis is a global problem. It is not interested in finding and disclosing the root cause of this havoc .
In such a situation it is a heartening to note the definite actions taken by Government of Assam to regulate farm products in the state.. In the time of scarcity it is not only production but supply system needs to be strengthened. THE SATE GOVERNMENT AT LEAST MADE SOME EFFORT to boost consumption, eliminating middle men from the market.
Indian government is of course desperate to stave off spiraling food price inflation atleast during this winter season.
Mr. Mukherjee during the meeting of world economic forum assured that none should be worried about the availability of food grains for the government would continue to import food items to meet any supply shortfall and scarcity food.
ASSAM GOVERNAMEN MUST ENSURE THAT PRICE of THREE THINGS must NOT HIT THE ROOF. It must endeavor to contain the price of rice, vegetable and fish. The fish lobby, in Assam, is very strong. THE GOVERNMENT MUST BREAK THE NEXUS BETWEEN SUPPLIERS – MIDDLEMEN AND RETAILERS. UNLESS MIDDLEMEN ARE CONTAINED NO USEFUL PURPOSE WOULD BE SERVED only BY FIXING UP THE RETAIL PRICE .Assam’s population survived famine like situation in the past mainly due to frugal food habits and due to non dependence on outside supplies. With the increase in population food habits have changed and dependence on outside supplies have increased. The government must strengthen public distribution system, crack nexus of middlemen in fish supplies and develop storage space for sufficient food grains and help small growers to produce green vegetables, rice and fish. THE ARRANGEMENT CAN Be MADE TO BRING IN FISH FROM Andhra government’s fishery department and distribute to retailers at pre determined price and also distribute through area wise Kiosk of Assam’s fishery department.
In spite of rising inflation and panic regarding food availability our government still believes that to sustain in world economy we need investment and support of corporate companies. The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister advocates the role of corporate sector in agriculture and says that activities other than food grain production like commercial crops, horticulture etc. have contributed most to agricultural GDP. The council recommends removal of subsidies related to grain procurement and REVAMPING of Public Distribution System.
“The Unprecedented food scarcity is beginning to dictate the rules of a new political order where individual countries are scrambling to secure their own food supplies with little concern for the rest of the world, “says the founder of the Earth Policy Institute, LESTER Brown.

"We are in the midst of the most severe food crisis in the world’s history," Brown said. "This is not your mother’s food shortage... but a chronically tight food situation, a serious and long-term problem.’’
From Africa to Asia, countries are scrambling to buy or lease land overseas to grow crops and feed their people. China, which has to feed the world’s largest population, has taken the lead by contracting land in Tanzania, Laos, Kazakhstan, Brazil and others.

India has set its eyes on Uruguay and Paraguay, while South Korea is looking for farming deals in Sudan and Siberia. Libya and Egypt for their part have been negotiating deals to lease land in Ukraine.

The worry here, according to Brown, is that "the more influential countries would be able to secure food supplies, leaving a number of low-income, less influential countries with no food to import".


Agricultural sector of India is mainly covered by small and marginal farmers, so our government should promote small scale agriculture. Corporate sector could be ushered in as an experiment in joint sector basis where land lord and cultivators would be partners with corporate on a selective basis. Can Assam experiment with this model?

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Friday, November 13, 2009

A CONCEPT TO UTILISE SOLAR POWER IN ASSAM

G.P. BAROOWAH

Tremendous research is going on in western countries for development solar energy as a corollary to electrical power generation in universities. The cities where further power generation is not possible solar power would substitute for conventional power usage ! The demand for power have multiplied in some of the states. But in case immediate generation is not possible dependence on alternative energy sources have become imperative. The educational and Research Institutes and Industrial Houses have collaborated to find out the solution. Can similar exercise be taken up in Assam.?

Habib-Ur Rahman Baruah, have been in America for last four decade working as a Professional Engineer. For the first time he mentioned to me, in a recent discussion, that America is at present in need of vast energy resources and research is going on how to generate electricity out of non conventional energy utilisation. One most important identified areas has been the Solar energy beside, Sea energy and Wind energy. The demand for electrical engineers in USA have become so high, despite recession, that almost all the retired Electrical engineers have been summoned back to join jobs in this sphere. Baruah, himself a retired electrical engineer, of seventy two years has joined back job in power generation. He said that shortage of electricity has initiated lot of research in the field of energy. The experienced electrical engineers may seek opportunity in America who have experience of power generation.The next decade will be the age of energy as was IT few years before, according to him. Another energy project based on sea waves have been initiated by a well known Assamese scientist based in Canada. Recently, Biswadeep Baruah , has joined as CEO of an iit cell for development of new project. Can he take some initiative on this kind of project now ?

I myself saw an experimental project in Los Angeles area where air conditioning plants are operating from the solar energy. This is an experimental project only and further development in the area is expected to make it cost effective. The project engineer with whom I talked expected that when successful the project would bringing down air conditioning cost by 60% from the conventional electricity mode. This is eased the power requirements for lighting and irrigation etc.
"When we tell people we heat water up only to cool it down, they don't get it at first," said David Berokoff, a technology development manager at So Cal Gas. "But all this technology has been around for a while. We're just trying to bring it together so we can get it out to our customers as soon as possible."

The initiative is the latest in a move by SoCal Gas and its parent, Sempra Energy, to wean businesses off gas and push them to use more solar power. For businesses, the technologies could mean substantial savings.

Beyond the potential environmental benefits -- the sun is a nonpolluting, renewable source of energy -- the solar systems undergoing tests could help businesses slash air conditioning costs as much as 60%,we were told.

It was understood that the research project is only 4 months old and solar-powered cooling probably won't reach the gas company's customers for another year or two, but the gas company is already wooing businesses to the rooftop of its Downey research facility.


The Coca-Cola Bottling Co. of Southern California, is observing the tests to see whether such technologies would make sense for several of its bottling plants. "It's a very long-term view, but it's the right view to have." This is where the matter attracted my attention. In the research project both education and business have gone hand in hand. Can this hand holding initiative be started in Guwahati between IIT, Guwahati and AIDC or IOC or Oil India?

The industries in Assam also needs lot of air-conditioning. These can be developed as unit wise smaller projects where air-conditioning are required. Even the entire Capital complex of government of Assam including the residences of ministers, secretaries and officials can be air conditioned if IIT, guawhati can develop a projnect like this .Initial research cost of the project need to be shared between the IIT ,government and OIL.IIT can support with brain and human resources and rest would expected to fund the research.

The gas based research company, in USA , has been checking out competing solar-thermal cooling technologies from two companies to see which would work best on the roofs of warehouses, manufacturing plants and other commercial buildings. Presently no residential building have been included in the plan. But it would extend to Housing estate later.

I also read in an article in LA Times later where it was stated that the rooftop prototype systems, which include the mirrors, pipes and computer-automated solar trackers, cost about $200,000 each -- about the same cost as the entire traditional air conditioning system installed in the 45,000-square-foot Downey building, The researcher hope to slash that price by at least half before it reaches commercial customers.

The research project is comparing systems developed by Sopogy Inc., based in Honolulu, and HelioDynamics of Britain. Both use mirrors to aim the sun's rays at water pipes, and when sun isn't available to heat the water -- at night, for example -- both rely on gas as a backup.The differences lie in the shape and size of the mirrors used and in the placement of the water pipes.

Sopogy uses several 12-foot mirrors that curve upward, reflecting sunshine onto a pipe running just above the center of each mirror. HelioDynamics uses slabs of small, flat mirrors that reflect the sun's rays onto a single pipe above them.

Both systems use computer-automated trackers to tilt the mirrors throughout the day as the sun moves across the sky.

The hot water in both systems is heated to temperatures just under 200 degrees and collected in a storage tank. Then it goes through an absorption chiller that cools the cold water used in the building's fan units.

The solar systems can work alongside existing gas and electric system .Non-solar systems use gas or electricity to heat the hot water before it goes through the chiller.

Nathan Olivarezgiles of LAtimes praised the effort of researchers and stated that
people want renewable sources of energy, but people don't expect a switch that just happens overnight. By using gas or electricity as a backup, customers not having to replace their infrastructure, and customers know they won't have to get into something experimental."



"The promoter gas company is giving researchers a stage to demonstrate what they can do for their customers". Can Similar arrangements be made between Oil India and IIT , guwahati. In case such collaboration succeed it will change the face of Assam. Power is really short in Assam. If solar energy can take care of air conditioning of industry and large industrial estate at much reduced cost then there would be substantial availability of power for common people of Assam.. It helps Government and society tremendously. IIT, guwahati's research has already resulted in low cost cycle rickshaw beside other projects. This energy research project can be given a head start through the good office's of Minister of Industry by organizing a meeting of chairmen of OIL, AIDC and Director of IIT to give concrete shape to such a public -private research project which can give benefit to industry, Government and to society as a whole.

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AGRICULTURE WOULD BE KEY TO ECONOMIC GROWTH

The Deputy Chairman of the planning commission DR. ALHUWALIA once declared that Indian Economic growth would be 6.8% and more during this fiscal.. We refused to agree to the above figure in this column. NOW CHAIRMAN OF THE Prime MINISTER’S ECONOMIC ADVISORY COUNCIL announced ,for the first time on last Monday, that country may expect growth of 6.5% ONLY. This was exactly the figure we predicted as early as JUNE. According to IMF and world bank growth rate should be 5%. The Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee felt that the economic growth would be around 8% and maybe little higher. In our column we disputed such a notion and reiterated that the economic growth of the country would come through social development and agriculture reform. However, he has realised the fact now that only agriculture could be the saviour. only a few days back Mr. Mukherjee advised '"the banks should now enhance credit to employment generating sectors especially to agriculture and micro enterprise" He now realised that to boost economic growth larger farm credit would be essential.. Man Mohan Singh’s government has given definite stress on the agriculture sector but in state like Assam credit is not taken by agriculturist, as they are afraid of stringent repayment terms. In north east micro credit have become successful for the positive role played by Nedfi. This sector coupled with industrial sector may bring about the required growth initially to 6.5% . The agriculture can play a major role in the overall growth of the economy. We still subscribe to this view. IT IS TO BE NOTED THAT IMF AND WORLD BANK FELT India 's growtt during the year would around five percent during this fiscal. but according to us it would be excess of 65 if not 6.5 %.



Why Government of India ’s main policy makers had revised the growth rate now? This is because the contribution of agriculture sector has gone down due to scanty influence of Monsoon. The contribution from agriculture would be negative. it would be less tan -2%. THE INFLATION IS ON RISE DESPITE MORE THAN EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR.The WPI inched to 1.21 percent for the week ended Oct 10, highest since May 30. . The strong build-up has been observed in the category of primary articles. Food articles have shown 14.13 percent inflation during the period.

With the kharif crop coming to the market, food prices will start cooling off. But ‘the impact may not be much significant to offset the increasing prices, the rising commodity prices are a matter of concern for the economy now. We are much more concerned of the supply side. Unless supply side improves, the inflation would not be contained.



The RBI admitted that managing the trade off between the growth and inflation posed a complex policy challenge to it. The extensive financil inclusion in rural areas are much more important compared to urban areas. The development of primary sector noe would automatically improve purchasing power of large community which in turn would develop urban base as was done in punjab.The prices of aluminum have increased almost 23 percent, while sugar prices have gone up nearly 90 percent in the last three months. Crude prices surged nearly 10 percent and the prices of copper have also skyrocketed about 111 percent, the industry lobby said. Though inflation is expected to rise, according to us, the Reserve Bank of India should not 'unwind its easy money policy in a hurry'. rise in interest rates and crowding out of private investments,' we feel.

UNDER THE CICUMSTANCES AGRICULTURE MAY BE THE ONLY SAVIOUR in the long run. The environment must be created so that consumption need to improve. The consumption would improve provided purchasing power of mass could created. So we need to be innovative. availability of finance wouldn't be the only solution. Bank must see that agriculturist and land lords don't hesitate to accept farm credit. The mental block of people of Assam needs to be addressed. In such a bleak situation why not give a chance to private sector to get involve in agriculture sector as a joint partner to land lords on profit sharing basis. Assam must uplift the ban on farming by corporate sector in production of rice and sunflower oil.. It would create employment for Agriculture graduates & other graduates. India’s economic recovery would come through the villages.




.Now, government should encourage joint sector farming, providing power and irrigational facilities to the farmers. The easy financial access alone would not help unless backed by infrastructure. The involvement of would generate employment for educated class.



The developed nations are using laser technology instead of tractors to till the lands. This helps in optimizing the use of various inputs such as water, seeds, fertilizers, etc. The problem is that Indian farmers cannot afford this technology and unless government and corporate sectors comes in support for agricultural infrastructure. The development of agriculture would remain a dream only ,if involvement of corporate sector is denied as a joint sector partners of landless laborer and that of land lords.


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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Whether buying of gold makes sense now?

During last few months I am flooded with a question from our readers whether should they buy Gold or Gold ETF. I am really surprised to find that so many persons have been rushing to buy Gold now a days. Gold have been favourite of human being from time immemorial. In fact Indian buys and holds maximum quantity of gold. Indian uses gold in ornaments during the wedding. Fashionable persons were gold jeweleries to make style statement. Yet most of the people uses it as the security for life during the financial crisis.
The birth of GOLD ETF emerged out of this sense of secuirty for life. The orld monetary system revolves round the GOLD standard. Nobdoy knows actually how many tons of Gold are kept in the FORTKNOX of USA but i the belief that works out like miracle. Entire monetary system revolve around the Gold. Recently IMF had recommended that countries of the world can sell Gold to combate recession. It is expected that GOLD price may come down when actual sell of Gold takes place. But according to some economist in the next fifteen years the value of Gold would go up many fold. In that pre supposition value of Gold is going up slowly from now onwards. So whether people should buy Gold or GOLD ETF ?

According to me if someone wants to make jeweleary for ewedding then it would be prudent to buy Gold. But it people wants to make an investment out of Gold then it is better to buy Gold ETF. What is GOLD ETF? Who started it? Is is worth while to buy ETF rather the Gold Metal? These are the questions need to be answaeered now.


Exchange traded funds (ETFs)were first introduced on the Toronto, Canada, Stock Exchange around the early '90s. They were then introduced in to the US and other markets during the 90s. in India Gold ETF was started during Twentyfirst century. What is the meaning of GOLD ETF fund?


A simplified definition would be: An exchange traded fund has funds and stocks in one product and trade is made on the particular fund. Prior to ETFs, stocks and funds, were traditionally kept separate to reflect liquidity issues.

The purpose of an ETF is to be able to invest in the growth of an industry or even commodity that was not easily available to the market prior to ETFs.There are certain inherant benefit of ETF. Those are:flexibility in the timing of purchases and sales. No taxes involves in ETF if investment is held for more than a year. However there are cetain disadvantage that there is no control of thebuyers of ETF over the activities or the content of the ETF. There is no gurantee that ETF buyer would own real Gold metal.The i9nvestor cannot redeem gold or take delivery of the gold. They can ofcourse get Cash equivalent to value of market based gold. To buy ETF there is hidden cost broker but that is minimal . It is even lowers than MFund cost. The unit reflect the price of actual price of London Bullion market. The greatst advantage is ETF is safe and there no problem of storage and cannot be sold any day when market is open.Once you have a brokerage account you can buy Gold ETF by placing an order like a normal stock order to buy listed Gold ETF. Most of the ETF are listed only on NSE. Unfortunately, BSE does not have any Gold ETF listed on it.

Gold EFT are fast becoming a rage in India. One reason attributed to its popularity could be its stellar performance in a relatively subdued market conditions.


It is a wise decision to allocate just a small portion of your portfolio to gold ETFs. Gold ETFs should not be looked at as a mainstream investment. Currently, there are six gold ETFs operating in the market and they are all alike. They are structured in a way that all generate same return. The NAV of all funds should be similar as per the market price of the gold metal .All ETF funds charge one percent expense. So any Gold ETF is virtually cost same and returns are also same.

When first introduced in India, many were skeptical about its relevance and suitability in Indian markets, however increasing volumes and new scheme launches(Quantum, SBI) indicate its growing acceptance in a naive market like India. It is a complex financial instrument. It involves many different entities apart from usual fund managers who manage the scheme. However, its has its own limitations since it is listed on exchanges.

Many people are unaware of ways to buy a GOLD ETF.

You need a Demat account along with broker who is a member of NSE to buy a Gold ETF. How much investment a persons should make in Gold or Gold ETF?


Any investopr should not invest al their disposable income in one basket. The money to be invested should be distributed. A persons of forty years age as the thumb rule goes should invest 60% in equity 20% in Gold ETF and 20% in Debt fund or FD( including PPF and bank saving acount). Investors some time make mistake of high investment in Gold ETF as they find when Dollar value goes down Gold Value goes up. But experience says nothing provide better return in long run than (1) work of art,(2) equity,(3) house and then only(4) Gold or Gold ETF. The investor should have gold ETF in their folio but not in preference to equity,and housing . The Gold ETF is good for creation of Wealth butnot for running their family expenses.


To hedge against Financial Collapse buying physical Gold is good if you have secured place to store.In a situation of great financial crisis GOLD ETF and share of Gold mining comapnies would never help . What should be done now?
Buy Gold or Gold ETF on DIP( not share of manufacturing comoanies) and keep it for for long term. But beaware gold should be a minor part of your portfolio and not the whole of your portfolio.

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Sunday, August 30, 2009

THE WAYS TO MAKE CHILDREN INVESTMENT SAVVY

The change is the only constant thing in life. I have observed in last few years that our society of Northeast India have greatly changed their attitude towards investment. Now a day’s most young men and women have started talking of investment at the beginning of their career itself. A few mothers, now senior citizen, have also called me up to ask how their daughters can be made investment Savvy. A lady asked how much time would it take to be a millionaire? She wanted to know if any salaried daughter ever can be a millionaire while pursuing the path of honesty and integrity? She is happy that her daughter grew up well and is occupying a decent position in a Multinational Company now.



My reply was that her daughter being a young person of 23 years and earning a decent salary is an obvious candidate to become a multi-millionaire before she turns 53 years. But trait of a prospective millionaire is patience, hard work and attitude towards saving and investment. She must be frugal in her habits and must not be spendthrift .These traits and habits are very rare in younger generation but not impossible to inculcate.. The mother again asked how much money would she require if she start investing from 2009? It will depend on the money she can afford, was my reply.



If her mother or any other relatives gift her around Rs.75, 089/- at this time she can be crorepati in 35 years by investing in good Mutual fund. There are a few persons who kept on investing Rs5233/- per month in the account of their daughters from First September 1992 and found that at the end of fifteen years on 31st August 2007 she received a sum of Rs Fifty lakh on 15th years. But most important thing is not how to become a crorepoti but to develop the habit of saving and investment on a regular basis. How can that are achieved?



This can be achieved by explaining the magic of cumulative effect to children. Take them to a bank early in life and show how a bank or post office operates. Give them a piggy bank and ask them to collect and save one rupee coin whenever government Mint issues it. Let the entire monetary gift, received by them every year from their relations, be deposited in PPF account. Explain to them what PPF is.

Show them how they can build up a fortune through the magic of cumulative effect. A small amount collected and saved regularly can make our children a millionaire. The fact can be noted from the example given here under. Take the children to ATM. Show them how these are operated. The children would be excited. Some of the modern schools have stated teaching at the primary level, how to plan marketing, how to budget and how to save money. These are fundamentals of life. Parents can take initiative and can coach boys and girls to save money and ask them to buy a book on general knowledge rather than buying an expensive garments, shoes and cell phones as they grow up.



.HOW CAN YOU BE A MILLIONAIRE BY SAVING:



Returns


In 10 years


In 15 years


In 20 years




9%


5168 per month


2643 per month


1498 per month


Rupees

12%


4348 per month


2002 per month


1011 per month


Rupees

15%


3634 Pr month


1496 per month


668 per month


Rupees



The above table clearly shows that assuming a return of 9%, a monthly investment of Rs. 1498/-for 20years can give an investor a return of Rs. One million. The 9% interest is available in Housing companies, and in many other corporate houses and also in banks. In case the person wants to invest in Mutual fund as low as Rs 668/- P.M. also can given him a million in 20 years. If a person can afford Rs 3634/- per month to save he can be a millionaire with in 10 years time. To become a millionaire is not very difficult as it is made out to be. The required qualities are the patience, hard work and formation of habit to spend less and save more for brighter future.



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sMALL TEA GROWER DESERVE BETTER DEAL FROM GOVERNMENT

Small tea growers are now an economic force for the state of Assam. This fact should be recognized by the state ministry now. Around 65,000 small tea growers are involved currently in tea production in the state. It is a matter of regret that most of the grower does not have land patta even now. The small tea gardens are now the backbone of economic rejuvenation. Tea industry kept local population away from the industry for long years. The fault, of course, was partly due to hesitation of the local population also. They never wanted to be involved in tea growing activities like south India and Chinese population in the past. However economic consideration and spread of education brought in entrepreneur- ship during the last part of twentyeth century. The twenty-first century saw large numbers Assamese youth participating in plantation and production of Tea. It has given money power to local population for the first time. These activities need to be encouraged. The question arises why land patta are not been given to small growers?



According to us land holding should be regularized. This would not only provide legitimacy to entrepreneurs but Government would actually know what the actual production of tea in the state is. This would help planning in economic and budgetary activities in future. This would also ensure better control to the Directorate of Tea for developmental planning. It is a matter of shame that State has failed to legalize the tea growing business where mostly son of the soils are involved. It is a well-known fact that without land pattas none would be able to avail loans from banks. Small growers as such would not be able to avail the benefit of several schemes of Tea Board in absence of possession certificate. We are aware there are some problems in granting land patta. But the matter should be addressed before it is too late. There was a time when green teas were stolen from garden to garden and were resold to factories through a n illicit agency system. The Government needs to look into this pitfall too.



Now a day’s small tea growing business has given money power to local Assamese youngstars for the first time. They should be encouraged so that in a given time they can diversify to production and marketing of the product. The marketing of tea is complex process. It needs business acumen, finance and technical expertise. If small growers are supported today it would help building up their confidence to embark upon the marketing ventures. I had stated earlier that gone are those days when people used to grow tea and relaxed. It automatically got sold. Time has changed. There is intense competition from ready to drink segments. Unless local youth are given a fair chance to learn the tricks of the trade slowly in the home ground small gardens would get sold to unwarranted businessmen. Local population would once again miss the opportunity to become creator of wealth. We should not forget that in later part of 19th century Assamese population missed the bus when they refused to become part of tea growing system on the sentimental ground of forsaking personal independence.



Presently Assam produces around 480 million kg tea. Out this amount around 30% tea comes from small tea grower. This is not a small contribution. This segment of small grower should be taken into confidence. Some of the small tea growers are threatening to start a movement. The Government Assam should nip this matter in bud itself. The imposition of cess on small grower is not illegal. Government surely can impose tax. The small grower has taken the matter to court. Since the matter is sub-judice now, it would not be proper to comment for us. But if past experience is considered the small grower may not have a cause to cheers. Rather small growers need to bargain with the Government to fix up the selling price of the green tea with built up incidence of cess and land revenue. In today’s economic scenario it is the quality of tea produce would determine the price and not the quantity. Our neighboring state of arunachal has realized the fact faster than Assam ’s small growers. This is despite the fact that small tea gardens of Arunachal are not very old. According to my belief the small tea growers should try to develop their own niche while producing green tea leaves. They can concentrate on organics tea manufacturing which commands a much higher value, even in today's bad market condition.



Notwithstanding the power of Sovereign to impose taxes and rates it needs to be mentioned that neighboring states like Bengal have withdrawn cess on green leaf. It is not necessary that Assam should do what others have done. Yet, since Assam has improved on their finance by better administration and by better realization it might provide some concession to the industry which always provided the government in power the economic , political and social support as a part of democratic process. Let tea industry flourish and bring peace and prosperity to the state. People would bless the government. Tea industry is no longer dominated by its producers only. It is the workers who dominates the political clouts. To ignore their cause would be suicidal for party in power both socially and economically even if it can ignore political angle.



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