Tuesday, April 7, 2009


In today's recessionary circumstances it is imperative to create demand for goods and rebuild the infrastructure. This effort if proved successful, employments would be generated automatically and that in turn would generate income of people.

Sad news are hitting Indian society all the time since January 2008. In a period of recession worst affected areas are always industrial sector first. The secondary sector always becomes first to receive the social bullets during down turn. Since industrial enterprises, in the period of boom, create employment liberally it gets effected badly during the time of economic recession. In India the agriculture is the biggest employer. It is followed by textile segments. Due to bad export more than four lakh employees have lost job during the year. It would start cascading effect. The most employees are workmen. Up till now sophisticated urban boys were losing jobs. Now even skilled workers have started loosing jobs. This may create turmoil in the society. Should this trend continue a chaos may erupt resulting in arson and looting which was not seen in our society for economic depression. Even during Bengal famine no such major upheaval was noticed amongst the various economic segment of the society.

Barrack Obama, American president forewarned recent the youth of America recently that unless boys were prepared to compete with Chinese and Indian lads it would be an annihilation to them. Neither mediocrity would be tolerated nor survived. Young American boys need to pull up their socks in case they want to survive . These words of President Obama was meant for the boys of his country. But it is also true for our own country too. Our boys must develop skills, new skills for new job. Not only development of skill alone would resolve the problem. Indian boys shall have to understand the dignity of labour.
In a time of recession for most boys’ service sector might be the only answer. The service sector would need honest and dedicated employees. Over the years it is seen how transport sector have developed with private drivers giving excellent service coupled with watch and ward forces. Ten years back 12 hours dedicated service from employees was unthinkable. Now it has become the order of the day. Courier service is another example of dedicated service of the day.

During the recession it is health and food related segments which can provide some stability. In this respect Government can help providing for training facility for health
related machines and instruments. The medical facilities of the private sector enterprises can be utilized for the training purposes. These boys could be deployed after proper training to the villages to take care of health of the population.

Perhaps development of agriculture sector could be also savior. In Assam fertility of land is high but credit availability is low, supply of fertilizer and irrigational canal , except in few place are not sufficient. Can Government think of these areas for development? This is also the time for building up enough roads in the villages linking the district headquarters. Fisheries are other areas where development can be thought of.. Thesd are the areas where our boys also have to show interest. Otherwise money would be spent by Government but it would go to the new generation of workers across the border.

The Government must also start quasi medical facilities at the earliest. A host of engineering college has been opened. There would be lots of requirement for laboratory technicians, teachers, demonstrators etc. Our boys must also be prepared to accept training and get them selves retrained with Media related avenues. During this time
There is no chance to loose jobs in media sphere, educational institute, nursing and
NGO. More and more services are coming into the fore in NGO. The social welfare segments are also coming up pretty well. Young engineers instead of waiting endlessly for the job posting which they were promised during campus interview should prepare for All India civil service jobs. A lot of engineers are required in the defense forces. Young boys and girls can keep their eyes and ears open and apply for these job. In Assam even most of the educated boys do not like to sit in the Government of India jobs. Slowly this trend is changing and boys and girls are trying to compete for these post..
The most important thing during these periods is the support of the family. Family members must try to provide great deal of support to boys who have not been able to get jobs now or whose jobs have been laid off.

The unions of the state have also a roll to play. Instead of confront with the Management it is the time to cooperate with the management. Productivity must not be ignored. Lay off could be avoided at the cost of acceptance of lower salary if need be. One thing must be kept in mind that bad time will not continue for ever. It is bound to change. The bad days would change for good .Only thing workers must wait with positive outlook.


Saturday, April 4, 2009


As the month of April stepped in it has become primary concern of most of the nations to find ways to save their own countries from the economic downturn. India felt that a sweeping change in international financial system is not necessary at present. But the developed countries must look after developing countries of the world and the stimulus package should be considered for the countries in Asia and Africa surely. The meeting of the G 20 was supposed to usher in a new financial discipline in the world economy. The most of the developing countries of Africa, including Kenya and Egypt, want that there should be sweeping changes in the international financial system. These countries felt that the effect of globalization has badly effected their countries and developed countries have got themselves enriched at the cost of developing countries. The concept of Globalization, developing countries felt, has brought in one sided benefit. It created poverty in developing countries whereas developed countries were hugely benefited. These system of controlling financial discipline for benefit of developed countries must change, African and Asian countries felt. Most nations feel that China and India will be Engines for change. Though the economic growth of India is coming down to 6.5% for 2009, it is still much better off compared to Europe where the growth rate is not only negative it is below zero.

With the economic down turn developed countries of the world too were in turmoil. They felt also that the time has come to have a re-look at the international financial system. They felt too that it is high time for a change in economic system. But what change is envisaged? None of the countries are sure exactly what would be the most ideal system of managing fiscal discipline. The French president forewarned that unless the strict new financial system is ushered in his country would not be party to G 20 deliberations. However Indian Prime Minister felt that more than sweeping change in the fiscal system, the World Bank and IMF should be strengthened and developing countries should be given bigger say in managing the funds. The head of the state of developed countries are waiting for the advice of Indian Prime Minister for he is regarded as the brilliant mind in World Economics.

We felt that what was needed in developed economy was more supervision and not regulation. In the recent crisis it appeared that the bank supervisors in developed countries did not do a proper job. The Bank supervisor did not use the common sense to go beyond what was usual business model in vogue. Indian banking system survived because it had stricter supervision in place.

In a survey conducted by Glob Scan, in association with the university of Maryland, reported BBC, it was found that More than 70% of people in 29 countries think major changes are needed in the way the global economy is run. Nearly two thirds - 62% - of the public say the downturn has negatively affected them, and half say the downturn will last more than two years. There is also broad support for reform of domestic economic policy.
In a survey conducted by BBC it was found that in four countries - Russia, Japan, Mexico and India - which are all in the G20, there is not majority support for major changes to the international economic order.
The survey did not ask what sort of changes in the global economy the public wanted, but another poll carried out in the UK suggested that a high priority would be a global stimulus package that created jobs. The vast majority of people of most countries want international stimulus so that job creation could be taken up expeditiously. Another important point came out in the survey that the shortage of credit seems to be having a bigger effect on families in developing countries; while 29% in the US, 19% in the UK and 16% in Germany say it has personally affected them or their families. What was more important in the present situation is to create demand for consumption rather than controlling of inflation. The growth activities need to be propagated. There is a strong possibility in India for further reduction of interest rates shortly despite falling, almost zero level of inflation. For the first time Indian Prime Minister admitted that the growth of the Indian economy might be negative and it can be as low as 6.5%. It is a fact that Assam Tribune’s business page predicted this rate of growth despite great optimism of some officials and institution of Government of India in the month of January.
In this connection the comment of the British Prime minister is praiseworthy to be quoted : “Leaders meeting in London must supply the oxygen of confidence to today's global economy and give people in all of our countries renewed hope for the future," This was what India also wants.