Sunday, January 3, 2010


We welcomed the New Year with joy and happiness. Let us hope the new year would bring, for all of us, peace , prosperity and happiness.In Indian culture four tenants have been specified for a successful life on the earth for human being.. Those are Dhrama, Artha, Kama and ultimately Muksho. For a peaceful and successfully life on earth these four things are most required. Very interestingly among all the important virtues "Artha" has been given an important place.It's place is just after the concept of "Dharma". Now what is "Dharma"? The Dharma is the expression of divinity in the human body and soul. The "Artha" is one of the basic requirements on earth to keep body and the soul together.Yet least importance is given to Artha or "money management " by most people of Northeast India.

For a long time the importance of money was never used to be discussed in the family get together, as it was considered indecent to discuss money matters in front of the children by parents.This culture has changed of l ate and people have become conscious of importance money. Yet full power of money has not been realised as yet.

In fact, money does not have any strong intrinsic value of its own. It acquires value as it is handled by people . If coins are kept stored in a pitcher or in a box or in a locker for a few years it looses value.Once upon a time, during Sixties, people of Assam used to buy ten eggs for a rupee. With the same amount of money today even one egg is not available.If a person saved that one rupee in his box, today it would have become almost valueless. But if he would have saved that one rupee in a bank (earning ten percent interest) the value of that Re One would have become Rs128/- .With that money even in today's market he would been able to buy three dozens of of eggs. So it is the human being who would have to be responsible to increase the value of money if he needs to survive even in today's market condition. How the value of money was increased in the instant case? It is the habit of saving and investment that generated the value of money. So in today's life whatever we earn should not be consumed during the month itself. A portion of earned income must be saved. Why? Because people can earn money only for thirty five to forty five years but they may survive up to eighty years of age. To keep their body and soul together they need to save and invest money. In to days situation earning money is not easy. But saving and investing money is still more difficult. So we need to make special efforts to save money and train our children to realise the importance of money as soon as they are ten years old.

The most investors are planning now as to how to go about investing in the New Year. A few of our readers conveyed us that the year 2009 brought luck to them. They invested wisely when market was down and could gain almost 28 % returns within a period of eleven months. Naturally they were happy and expressed their satisfaction. Actually they gained only for their own boldness and judicious decision making capacity. It was nice to hear that some of our readers could get satisfying returns during the last year. But it must be kept in mind that in short term generally equity market does not provide excellent returns. Perhaps an element of luck also helped our investors, beside their own strength. The 2009 was an unusually good year.( The investment of Rs. one lakh on First January gave a return of Rs 1,78,597 on BSE sensex, Rs. 1,29,953 on Gold, Rs 160,991 on silver, Rs 1,08,243 on Bank fixed deposit, Rs 1,22,027 in Debt oriented hybrid fund and Rs. 1,86,090 on equity Mutual fund, as on 28TH December 2009.) The highest return came from equity , followed by silver and Gold and the lowest was bank fixed deposit.

Everyone expect that in 2010 also such good returns would be available. According to our calculations year to year returns during the New Year may not be as alluring as it was during 2009. The inflation is getting higher every day. Though America and Europe is out of severe recession actually unemployment figures have not gone down. The banks are not giving enough loans as before. Under the circumstance market is expected to remain volatile. Unless FII invest in Indian share market stocks do not move steadily upward. Indian investors remain shy till market makes bold upward movements. There is a strong possibilities that Indian share market may move upward during first few months of the first quarter but as the year marches ahead THE CORRECTION MAY SET IN AND MARKET MAY GO DOWN AT-LEAST BY 20% PERCENT. Mark Faber predicts 30% correction from present high of 17,800 sensex. Everyone is asking now the following question:

What’s in store for us in 2010? The answer is: The recessions stemming from financial crises tend to be severe and are usually followed by relatively anemic economic recoveries. This time will be no exception, with one of the feeblest recoveries -- maybe 6% to 7% growth in GDP in 2010 – there could be a steep decline of market after a few months. But investors should not worry. In last ten years (from year 2000 to First January, 2010) the best return came from equity, (despite big crash of 2008) followed by gold, silver, real estate, debt oriented balance fund and lastly Bank Fixed Deposit. The equity is the king ion the long run .So younger investors should concentrate on equity, Mid aged investors on Balance fund and old investors on SCSS , PPF and bank.

The stock-market rally of 2009 had an artificial feel. It owed more to a sea of liquidity than to an improvement in the nation’s basic economic condition. Shadow of such depressing situation market may behave erratically. What should be done under such circumstances?

Our recommendation would be to stick to old faithful stocks so far as shares market is concerned. If you have to buy stock buy only promising shares of the emerging categories like communication, IT etc and shares of good old industrial products like steel, oils & chemical, banking and medicine. Investor could also rely more on ULIP and diversified Mutual Fund. During the year thematic funds should be avoided. It is a fact that all the investment should not be kept in single basket of equity only. For creation of wealth different asset class should be subscribed. What is the other asset class that could be relied upon? During past ten years only one asset class had surpassed the equity market- I.e. “ART “segment. But to buy art work investor must be knowledgeable. Art of Hussein or Ganesh Pain and Bikash Bhattachajee are real asset but those are very costly for common investors. The art work of new artists is available at reasonable cost. The silver, Gold and land are other two asset Classes that could be relied upon provided it can be kept protected. Gold ETF are easy to handle but realty sector have not inspired confidence. So the best bet for 2010 would be the Diversified equity and PPF for young investor and for senior citizen it could be balanced funds and SCSS. During the year of 2010 the market is sure to correct. That would be time to enter the market who can organize lump sum amount. My recommendation would be to take the route of SIP or STP from now onward for a period of two years. .If money could be kept invested atleast for four years from now there is a strong possibility of a high return by 2012. Making money is not easy. Many people broke down when their hard earned money, invested for children, became half almost, in 2008, but those persons reaped greatest benefit who kept the money invested throughout 2008 and 2009 and did not redeem despite great psychological pressure from family and friends.

The greatest virtue for the investors of 2010 would be Caution, Patience and Boldness. None need to invest who are weak heart. The year of 2010 would be going to be a landmark year for it would provide the base for a successful earning in 2012-2015. Investor should fix their vision judiciously, keeping in their earning capacity in mind, and wait for the opportunity to invest when opportunity knocks at the market door in 2010.


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