Friday, November 13, 2009


I am writing on investment after a long gap. This is because the share market has been very volatile and up for some time. Any new investor investing in such a market could have burnt their fingers. Many of our readers have been writing to us enquiring whether they should invest now or not. The share market sensex has come down from almost 17,800 to 15,450 on November 3rd. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF MARKET FURTHER GOING DOWN . However it my slide back upward also temporarily. The present trend is apparently bearish. But none can forecast market trend with certainty.

Under the present low market situation I would like to recommend our readers to invest only if they can hold the money invested for atleast four years. The investors who would be in need of money within one or two years they are advised to stay away from share market investment. The investor who does not have any investment in gold may think of buying gold. The gold is going to be scare in the medium term. The RBI has already started buying gold from IMF. However, gold should not form more than 20% of the total portfolio of any person. THE GOLD ETF can be bought by senior citizen if the have holding capacity. The Gold investment might give a decent return within three to four years time.

Many of our readers have asked where they need to invest. I would like to remind all our readers that investment depends on the risk taking capacity of individual persons, as well as their planning of resources for future. So pattern of investment would be different for different persons. If a person has built up his own home already and doe snot have mortgage to pay bank he or she can take risk more than a person who has yet to clear his hose loan. THE AGE OF PERSON ALSO WOULD DETERMIND THE INVESTMENT PATTERN. I don’t advice any of our senior citizen, of more than seventy years of age, to get into equity based investment now. But this the time for our young readers above 28 years of age to get into buying equity provided they can keep on investing under ‘ systematic Investment Plan’ (SIP) . This is a good time to invest for market has come down substantially from high of 17,000 of September. Many investments GURU believe market may tumble down to a low of 12,000. But I do not believe in such calculations because till now no scientific device has been evolved to correctly predict the market behaviors. MY RECOMMENDATION WOULD BE TO INVEST Now under SIP atleast for two three years and hold the investment atleast for three to four years.

A few senior citizens have asked whether they should desist from entering share market at all. MY VIEWS ARE CLEAR THAT SENIOR CITZEN CAN ENTER THE MARKET PROVIDED THE HAVE EXPERIECE OF MARKET FLUCTUATION AND HAVE HIGH RISK TAKIG CAPACITY. SENIOR CITIZEN SHOULD ENTER INTO GOVERNMENT OF INDIA’S SENIOR CITIZEN SAVIBG SCHEME (SCSS) WHERE even now returns are 9%. The maximum limit of investment is 15lakh. The interest of BANK FIXED DEPOSIT, FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS PERIOD, IS AROUND 7.25% TO 7.50% ONLY. At present not only equity is doing badly but debt and income funds are also not doing well. SO it would be appropriate to hold the wealth with you, and invest slowly with a clear vision for future, after proper study and planning. The Senior citizen can subscribe balance funds also.

Many readers are asking whether they should invest in mutual fund or in stock. I have explained this issue number of times. Yet I would explain my views once again as lot of persons are asking the question. Please do not enter share market just because your neighbour have done so and have minted money. Before entering the share market ask yourself whether if you have time to study market fluctuations. Do you understand macro and micro economic values? The most people do not have patience to study and to follow up the turn and twist of market. IF you do not have expertises avoid share market and go through the route of mutual funds first. When you get experienced in mutual fund you can get into share market after studying market behaviors from reputed news papers, financial journals etc or through your financial advisors. One thing is sure if you have patience and capacity withstands risk this is the time TO enter market through SIP. A TIME WILL PERHAPS COME, AFTER FOUR YEARS OR SO, WHEN YOU WOULD BE ABLE TO CONGRATLATE YOURSELF FOR TAKIG THE RIGHT DECISION NOW.


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