India, is facing the highest food inflation in six months. Economist now recommends that Government should build up strategic stockpiles of staples to cool prices, in medium term. What should be done in short term? The Governor of RBI, D. Subba Rao has categorically stated on 25th January that monetary policy is not that effective when it comes to inflation driven by supply side factors as is evident at present.
Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh’s government, is under pressure to curb costs of vegetables such as onions, a key ingredient in local cuisine, must build reserves of cooking oils, lentils and expand cold-storage facilities. We have discussed earlier long term measures that could be taken Up to bring down food prices.. The views expressed in this article today is not as a student of Economics but as a member of suffering public who has been associated with market analysis for food commodities since last three decade at Guwahati, Kolkata and Delhi as a retail buyer. During medium and short term action taken only by RBI is not enough. Even the most powerful action taken by RBI would not work like magic unless it is supplemented by action of local government first and secondly by the Central Government. For regulating food prices in short term there are four components. These are increase of CRR and Repo rate by Central bank, action against hoarding of food grains by traders by local government and canalizing subsidized through corruption free route by Central Government and lastly by avoids buying artificially priced goods and commodities by people in general. More than RBI Government need to orgnaise upply side of food products through imports. If these four measures could be taken together immediately price would come under control immediately.
“China has acted wisely in creating strategic reserves of key food items and managing prices,” Should India follow that ? No, for in India stock piling would give rise to corruption and here corruption like inflation can not be controlled for supply chain is linked with top to bottom. Any way stock piling is a Medium term measures. What we need now is short term action so that prices cool down. This short term action can come from local Government through removing curtail on fish market. This may cost a few politicians kitty but would improve the election prospect of the party in power. Perhaps everybody remembers that Suharto lost his job due to uncontrolled food prices of commodities. The same fate awaits Government of Assam , too, in case food price is not controlled by March. Too much stress only on growth story may have adverse repercussion . The fruit of development must percolate to the bottom of the society. This is where power of governance comes in.
. India, the second-biggest grower of rice, wheat and sugar, may buy some supplies from overseas, boosting prices of commodities including palm and soybean oils. Inflation is a casualty of high vegetable prices and the government may need to import some essential commodities to cool costs The buffer stocks created should be rotated regularly or else we’ll be doing more harm to prices. Today, we have no hesitation to recommend starting of retail movement through local corporate with foreign participation like in case of Insurance management. India does not have expertise on retail distribution system. The system can be developed with foreign participation.
Prices in India may cool if the Forward Markets Commission, which regulates the commodity futures markets, orders bourses to “substantially” increase trading margin. .Singh’s government has reached out to Pakistan to import onions after prices almost doubled in the last month, and plans to sell 5 million tons of rice and wheat at subsidized prices as opposition parties prepare to launch protests against inflation.. Onion is not a staple food. It should not have created so much suffering. It is intentional. Hoarding and corruption and PDS must be strengthening. Public has also a duty to perform. If uses of onion is restricted by people in general none will die out hunger. Traders would be forced to sale at reasonable cost as it is a perishable commodity and cannot be hoarded long..The government may ban exports of wheat products, cut taxes on milk powder and ban futures in essential commodities to cool prices, “The government may be tempted to crack down on hoarders and impose stockholding limits” on everyday food items, according to some economists. Still, the government measures may not staunch inflation as weather disruptions to crops globally keep prices high.
“Given extreme weather patterns across the globe -- floods in Australia, snowstorms in the northern hemisphere -- price rises could persist in the coming months. “This poses upside risks to our inflation forecasts.”
World food prices reached an all-time high in December on higher sugar, grain and oilseed costs, the United Nations said, exceeding levels reached in 2008 that sparked deadly riots from Haiti to Egypt. Kaushik Basu said that India is a huge country in terms of population and land area. It is utter mistake to think that it is fully within the control of the government to move prices of food up and down. Despite our high regards for Mr. Basu we do not agree with these arguments. China is a bigger country than India with greater population .How China is controlling food prices? China is controlling through long term planning of stock piling and eradicating corruption and by managing public distribution system with greater vigilance. This is where Indian politician cum administrators failed.
Palm oil, which accounts for 80 percent of India’s annual cooking oil imports worth $8.4 billion, have surged 57 percent in the past six months in Malaysia, while soybean oil climbed 43 percent in 2010 for a second straight year, because of adverse weather in the producing nations.Did Government of India ever though to stock piling this product knowing well that onion could be avoided but for Indian kitchen cooking oil is a must.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has raised interest rates six times in a year, the most by any central bank in Asia. China asked banks to set aside more reserves six times and raised interest rates twice in 2010. Monetary action alone won’t help cool food prices. “The world may have to live with higher food prices a little longer as there’s too much cheap money chasing too few goods,” he said. “The government will be forced to go hammer and tongs to keep prices under check.”
We however agree that the the government is just an enabling body. Basu said , there are little local bodies taking decisions, there are private players taking decisions, farmers taking decisions... Government can give signals, can intervene strategically to keep the situation as much under control as possible. Of course he is correct but as an enabling body it is the mundane duty of the government to coordinate all these channels.
He said movement of onion, whose price rise resulted in surge in inflation, should be facilitated to bring down rates. "I am not denying that there are occasions when slightly earlier moves could have been made, no two ways about that." ,Basu agreed
Basu, however, cautioned against using any blunt instrument like arbitrary fixing of prices to tame exceptionally high prices, as such a move results in shortage of commodities and retard growth. We are entirely in agreement with Basu. But let the first stop be taken locally to control unscrupulous traders and hoarder and cartel of fish market at least for Assam
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE WOULD ONLY TAME THE PRICE LEVEL
It is now apparent that from 2011 the growth rate of Indian Economy would be 9% ( 8.75% plus or minus .35% ) or more. The contribution of such higher growth rate would be possible due better development of scientific Agricultural reform and not only by arrival timely monsoon.. The agriculture growth is going to be doubled in a few years provided scientific reforms measures are taken up in Agriculture sector. However the expected 9% growth rate would not be possible if investment in agriculture is not taken up , current account is not controlled, higher crude oil price ( above $ 100 per barrel) continues affect the economy and fiscal deficit remains uncontrolled. Since our country has no control on crude oil prices, and facing difficulties to control deficit due to political reasons only savior could be higher agriculture output.
The revaluation of assets, from time to time, is an accepted norm for industry. Why not this practice should be adhered to in case of Agriculture too? The land could be revalued in terms of inflation rate, purpose of utilization and potential to earn out of that property for next twenty years. It is a fact that in future land also would be required for industrial development. None can stop that process if high economic growth needs to be achieved. Agriculture alone cannot give the required economic boost. Unless farm land reform are taken up immediately even smaller state like Assam would face unprecedented public wrath while trying to allocate land for the development of industry and even for development of real estate enterprises. In modern time secondary sector and service sector would play the greater role in determining overall economic growth. But initially the primary sector has to provide the much required push by enhancing the productivity of land.
The increase in productivity of farm land has to be the first priority now.. It is the productivity of land that would determine ultimate economic growth. In a state like Assam which is endowed with great water resources and fertile land the enhanced productivity would set in motion a great all-round economic growth rate. There would be surplus availability of land if productivity is ensured. By utilizing 20% of this excess land the capital intensive manufacturing enterprises could be ushered in unleashing a chain reaction that would create near full employment situation.. This is not a euphoric dream but a possible hard life reality The former Federal Reserve Chairman Allan Greenspan of USA recently reiterated that India has potential for the robust economic growth and thereby change the face of the world provided it takes up the agriculture reform in proper perspective. The high food inflation is direct result of systemic failure of supply side management of agricultural commodities. Unless agriculture reforms and time management to improve supply side are taken up the country may face uproar sooner than later.
The foremost requirement would be to overhaul the entire structure of Indian agriculture. To achieve the enhanced productivity four factors would be required i.e. (a ) developed infrastructure, (b) consolidation of fragmented holdings and (c) better varieties of seeds and tilling machineries suiting Indian condition AND (4) revaluation of land .Primarily the agricultural land valuation need to be enhanced first. The archaic land valuation procedures need to be re-looked at. The rate of premium payment of 25% cost of agriculture land to land less cultivators must be changed whenever the land is acquired by government or sold by the landowners for the purpose industrial development. The Government needs to pass a law revaluing the cost of land of the state and the rate of payment to landless agricultural workers whenever land changes hand. The compensation must commensurate with earning capacity of the land for fresh utilization. The landless workers or his nominee must be made partners of the new enterprise whenever agriculture land is made to surrender for development .In North India value of farm land have gone up by 5000% in ten years. The Real Estate agents have made money while poor agriculturists have remained poor. This situation needs to be salvaged.
Now, the government should encourage joint sector farming, providing power and irrigational facilities to the farmers. The easy financial access alone would not help unless backed by infrastructure. The developed nations are using laser technology instead of tractors to till the lands. This helps in optimizing the use of various inputs such as water, seeds, fertilizers, etc. The problem is that Indian farmers cannot afford this technology and unless government ushers in corporate sectors to support for agricultural infrastructure.
I have a practical model in mind which could be given a try. This model is not a commune system but is based on three platform system unlike dual platform system of Russia and even China. The government should encourage joint sector farming, providing power and irrigational facilities to the farmers. The easy financial access alone would not help unless backed by infrastructure. The corporate sector would provide the organization to run the massive farms and landless cultivators would be absorbed as the workers. They would be employed full time till they retire at fifty years with pension benefit. The landowners would get part compensation in terms of money value AS AND WHEN LAND IS HANDED OVER to the corporation .The landowners would also be the minority shareholders of the corporate entity .The Tripartite involvement would generate employment for educated class as supervisors and Managers.
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister advocates the role of corporate sector in agriculture and says that activities other than food grain production like commercial crops, horticulture etc. have contributed most to agricultural GDP. The council recommends removal of subsidies related to grain procurement and REVAMPING of Public Distribution System. The recent suggestion of Dr. Kaushik Basu for introduction of Smart card is welcome. If government accept even the suggestion of Dr. Rangarajan and Dr. Basu it would be good for the state and in long term would be able to avoid Nandigram type situation .
From Africa to Asia, countries are scrambling to buy or lease land overseas to grow crops and feed their people. China, which has to feed the world’s largest population, has taken the lead by contracting land in Tanzania, Laos, Kazakhstan, Brazil and others. India has set its eyes on Uruguay and Paraguay, while South Korea is looking for farming deals in Sudan and Siberia. Libya and Egypt for their part have been negotiating deals to lease land in Ukraine.
With greatest potential, Assam was experiencing with negative growth rate for past few years. May be they would reverse the trend this year. For better economic growth ,Assam Government must enhance the value of Farm land. The large entrepreneurs must be encouraged to cultivate in collaboration with local land lords and cultivators. Agricultural sector of India is mainly covered by small and marginal farmers, so our government should promote small scale agriculture .But corporate sector could be ushered in as an experiment in joint sector basis in large farming where land lord and cultivators become partners with corporate HOUSES on a selective basis. The government remains as the facilitators. Assam can experiment with this model and outshine Hariyana and Punjab.
___________________________________
The revaluation of assets, from time to time, is an accepted norm for industry. Why not this practice should be adhered to in case of Agriculture too? The land could be revalued in terms of inflation rate, purpose of utilization and potential to earn out of that property for next twenty years. It is a fact that in future land also would be required for industrial development. None can stop that process if high economic growth needs to be achieved. Agriculture alone cannot give the required economic boost. Unless farm land reform are taken up immediately even smaller state like Assam would face unprecedented public wrath while trying to allocate land for the development of industry and even for development of real estate enterprises. In modern time secondary sector and service sector would play the greater role in determining overall economic growth. But initially the primary sector has to provide the much required push by enhancing the productivity of land.
The increase in productivity of farm land has to be the first priority now.. It is the productivity of land that would determine ultimate economic growth. In a state like Assam which is endowed with great water resources and fertile land the enhanced productivity would set in motion a great all-round economic growth rate. There would be surplus availability of land if productivity is ensured. By utilizing 20% of this excess land the capital intensive manufacturing enterprises could be ushered in unleashing a chain reaction that would create near full employment situation.. This is not a euphoric dream but a possible hard life reality The former Federal Reserve Chairman Allan Greenspan of USA recently reiterated that India has potential for the robust economic growth and thereby change the face of the world provided it takes up the agriculture reform in proper perspective. The high food inflation is direct result of systemic failure of supply side management of agricultural commodities. Unless agriculture reforms and time management to improve supply side are taken up the country may face uproar sooner than later.
The foremost requirement would be to overhaul the entire structure of Indian agriculture. To achieve the enhanced productivity four factors would be required i.e. (a ) developed infrastructure, (b) consolidation of fragmented holdings and (c) better varieties of seeds and tilling machineries suiting Indian condition AND (4) revaluation of land .Primarily the agricultural land valuation need to be enhanced first. The archaic land valuation procedures need to be re-looked at. The rate of premium payment of 25% cost of agriculture land to land less cultivators must be changed whenever the land is acquired by government or sold by the landowners for the purpose industrial development. The Government needs to pass a law revaluing the cost of land of the state and the rate of payment to landless agricultural workers whenever land changes hand. The compensation must commensurate with earning capacity of the land for fresh utilization. The landless workers or his nominee must be made partners of the new enterprise whenever agriculture land is made to surrender for development .In North India value of farm land have gone up by 5000% in ten years. The Real Estate agents have made money while poor agriculturists have remained poor. This situation needs to be salvaged.
Now, the government should encourage joint sector farming, providing power and irrigational facilities to the farmers. The easy financial access alone would not help unless backed by infrastructure. The developed nations are using laser technology instead of tractors to till the lands. This helps in optimizing the use of various inputs such as water, seeds, fertilizers, etc. The problem is that Indian farmers cannot afford this technology and unless government ushers in corporate sectors to support for agricultural infrastructure.
I have a practical model in mind which could be given a try. This model is not a commune system but is based on three platform system unlike dual platform system of Russia and even China. The government should encourage joint sector farming, providing power and irrigational facilities to the farmers. The easy financial access alone would not help unless backed by infrastructure. The corporate sector would provide the organization to run the massive farms and landless cultivators would be absorbed as the workers. They would be employed full time till they retire at fifty years with pension benefit. The landowners would get part compensation in terms of money value AS AND WHEN LAND IS HANDED OVER to the corporation .The landowners would also be the minority shareholders of the corporate entity .The Tripartite involvement would generate employment for educated class as supervisors and Managers.
The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister advocates the role of corporate sector in agriculture and says that activities other than food grain production like commercial crops, horticulture etc. have contributed most to agricultural GDP. The council recommends removal of subsidies related to grain procurement and REVAMPING of Public Distribution System. The recent suggestion of Dr. Kaushik Basu for introduction of Smart card is welcome. If government accept even the suggestion of Dr. Rangarajan and Dr. Basu it would be good for the state and in long term would be able to avoid Nandigram type situation .
From Africa to Asia, countries are scrambling to buy or lease land overseas to grow crops and feed their people. China, which has to feed the world’s largest population, has taken the lead by contracting land in Tanzania, Laos, Kazakhstan, Brazil and others. India has set its eyes on Uruguay and Paraguay, while South Korea is looking for farming deals in Sudan and Siberia. Libya and Egypt for their part have been negotiating deals to lease land in Ukraine.
With greatest potential, Assam was experiencing with negative growth rate for past few years. May be they would reverse the trend this year. For better economic growth ,Assam Government must enhance the value of Farm land. The large entrepreneurs must be encouraged to cultivate in collaboration with local land lords and cultivators. Agricultural sector of India is mainly covered by small and marginal farmers, so our government should promote small scale agriculture .But corporate sector could be ushered in as an experiment in joint sector basis in large farming where land lord and cultivators become partners with corporate HOUSES on a selective basis. The government remains as the facilitators. Assam can experiment with this model and outshine Hariyana and Punjab.
___________________________________
HOW TO CONTROL FOOD PRICES IN SHORT TERM
India, is facing the highest food inflation in six months. Economist now recommends that Government should build up strategic stockpiles of staples to cool prices, in medium term. What should be done in short term? Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh’s government, is under pressure to curb costs of vegetables such as onions, a key ingredient in local cuisine, must build reserves of cooking oils, lentils and expand cold-storage facilities. We have discussed earlier long term measures that could be taken Up to bring down food prices.. The views expressed in this article today is not as a student of Economics but as a member of suffering public who has been associated with market analysis for food commodities since last three decade at Guwahati, Kolkata and Delhi as a retail buyer. During medium and short term action taken only by RBI is not enough. Even the most powerful action taken by RBI would not work like magic unless it is supplemented by action of local government first and secondly by the Central Government. For regulating food prices in short term there are four components. These are increase of CRR and Repo rate by Central bank, action against hoarding of food grains by traders by local government and canalizing subsidized through corruption free route by Central Government and lastly by avoids buying artificially priced goods and commodities by people in general. More than RBI Government need to orgnaise upply side of food products through imports. If these four measures could be taken together immediately price would come under control immediately.
“China has acted wisely in creating strategic reserves of key food items and managing prices,” Should India follow that ? No, for in India stock piling would give rise to corruption and here corruption like inflation can not be controlled for supply chain is linked with top to bottom. Any way stock piling is a Medium term measures. What we need now is short term action so that prices cool down. This short term action can come from local Government through removing curtail on fish market. This may cost a few politicians kitty but would improve the election prospect of the party in power. Perhaps everybody remembers that Suharto lost his job due to uncontrolled food prices of commodities. The same fate awaits Government of Assam , too, in case food price is not controlled by March. Too much stress only on growth story may have adverse repercussion . The fruit of development must percolate to the bottom of the society. This is where power of governance comes in.
. India, the second-biggest grower of rice, wheat and sugar, may buy some supplies from overseas, boosting prices of commodities including palm and soybean oils. Inflation is a casualty of high vegetable prices and the government may need to import some essential commodities to cool costs The buffer stocks created should be rotated regularly or else we’ll be doing more harm to prices. Today, we have no hesitation to recommend starting of retail movement through local corporate with foreign participation like in case of Insurance management. India does not have expertise on retail distribution system. The system can be developed with foreign participation.
Prices in India may cool if the Forward Markets Commission, which regulates the commodity futures markets, orders bourses to “substantially” increase trading margin. .Singh’s government has reached out to Pakistan to import onions after prices almost doubled in the last month, and plans to sell 5 million tons of rice and wheat at subsidized prices as opposition parties prepare to launch protests against inflation.. Onion is not a staple food. It should not have created so much suffering. It is intentional. Hoarding and corruption and PDS must be strengthening. Public has also a duty to perform. If uses of onion is restricted by people in general none will die out hunger. Traders would be forced to sale at reasonable cost as it is a perishable commodity and cannot be hoarded long..The government may ban exports of wheat products, cut taxes on milk powder and ban futures in essential commodities to cool prices, “The government may be tempted to crack down on hoarders and impose stockholding limits” on everyday food items, according to some economists. Still, the government measures may not staunch inflation as weather disruptions to crops globally keep prices high.
“Given extreme weather patterns across the globe -- floods in Australia, snowstorms in the northern hemisphere -- price rises could persist in the coming months. “This poses upside risks to our inflation forecasts.”
World food prices reached an all-time high in December on higher sugar, grain and oilseed costs, the United Nations said, exceeding levels reached in 2008 that sparked deadly riots from Haiti to Egypt. Kaushik Basu said that India is a huge country in terms of population and land area. It is utter mistake to think that it is fully within the control of the government to move prices of food up and down. Despite our high regards for Mr. Basu we do not agree with these arguments. China is a bigger country than India with greater population .How China is controlling food prices? China is controlling through long term planning of stock piling and eradicating corruption and by managing public distribution system with greater vigilance. This is where Indian politician cum administrators failed.
Palm oil, which accounts for 80 percent of India’s annual cooking oil imports worth $8.4 billion, have surged 57 percent in the past six months in Malaysia, while soybean oil climbed 43 percent in 2010 for a second straight year, because of adverse weather in the producing nations.Did Government of India ever though to stock piling this product knowing well that onion could be avoided but for Indian kitchen cooking oil is a must.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has raised interest rates six times in a year, the most by any central bank in Asia. China asked banks to set aside more reserves six times and raised interest rates twice in 2010. Monetary action alone won’t help cool food prices. “The world may have to live with higher food prices a little longer as there’s too much cheap money chasing too few goods,” he said. “The government will be forced to go hammer and tongs to keep prices under check.”
We however agree that the the government is just an enabling body. Basu said , there are little local bodies taking decisions, there are private players taking decisions, farmers taking decisions... Government can give signals, can intervene strategically to keep the situation as much under control as possible. Of course he is correct but as an enabling body it is the mundane duty of the government to coordinate all these channels.
He said movement of onion, whose price rise resulted in surge in inflation, should be facilitated to bring down rates. "I am not denying that there are occasions when slightly earlier moves could have been made, no two ways about that." ,Basu agreed
Basu, however, cautioned against using any blunt instrument like arbitrary fixing of prices to tame exceptionally high prices, as such a move results in shortage of commodities and retard growth. We are entirely in agreement with Basu. But let the first stop be taken locally to control unscrupulous traders and hoarder and cartel of fish market at least for Assam
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.
“China has acted wisely in creating strategic reserves of key food items and managing prices,” Should India follow that ? No, for in India stock piling would give rise to corruption and here corruption like inflation can not be controlled for supply chain is linked with top to bottom. Any way stock piling is a Medium term measures. What we need now is short term action so that prices cool down. This short term action can come from local Government through removing curtail on fish market. This may cost a few politicians kitty but would improve the election prospect of the party in power. Perhaps everybody remembers that Suharto lost his job due to uncontrolled food prices of commodities. The same fate awaits Government of Assam , too, in case food price is not controlled by March. Too much stress only on growth story may have adverse repercussion . The fruit of development must percolate to the bottom of the society. This is where power of governance comes in.
. India, the second-biggest grower of rice, wheat and sugar, may buy some supplies from overseas, boosting prices of commodities including palm and soybean oils. Inflation is a casualty of high vegetable prices and the government may need to import some essential commodities to cool costs The buffer stocks created should be rotated regularly or else we’ll be doing more harm to prices. Today, we have no hesitation to recommend starting of retail movement through local corporate with foreign participation like in case of Insurance management. India does not have expertise on retail distribution system. The system can be developed with foreign participation.
Prices in India may cool if the Forward Markets Commission, which regulates the commodity futures markets, orders bourses to “substantially” increase trading margin. .Singh’s government has reached out to Pakistan to import onions after prices almost doubled in the last month, and plans to sell 5 million tons of rice and wheat at subsidized prices as opposition parties prepare to launch protests against inflation.. Onion is not a staple food. It should not have created so much suffering. It is intentional. Hoarding and corruption and PDS must be strengthening. Public has also a duty to perform. If uses of onion is restricted by people in general none will die out hunger. Traders would be forced to sale at reasonable cost as it is a perishable commodity and cannot be hoarded long..The government may ban exports of wheat products, cut taxes on milk powder and ban futures in essential commodities to cool prices, “The government may be tempted to crack down on hoarders and impose stockholding limits” on everyday food items, according to some economists. Still, the government measures may not staunch inflation as weather disruptions to crops globally keep prices high.
“Given extreme weather patterns across the globe -- floods in Australia, snowstorms in the northern hemisphere -- price rises could persist in the coming months. “This poses upside risks to our inflation forecasts.”
World food prices reached an all-time high in December on higher sugar, grain and oilseed costs, the United Nations said, exceeding levels reached in 2008 that sparked deadly riots from Haiti to Egypt. Kaushik Basu said that India is a huge country in terms of population and land area. It is utter mistake to think that it is fully within the control of the government to move prices of food up and down. Despite our high regards for Mr. Basu we do not agree with these arguments. China is a bigger country than India with greater population .How China is controlling food prices? China is controlling through long term planning of stock piling and eradicating corruption and by managing public distribution system with greater vigilance. This is where Indian politician cum administrators failed.
Palm oil, which accounts for 80 percent of India’s annual cooking oil imports worth $8.4 billion, have surged 57 percent in the past six months in Malaysia, while soybean oil climbed 43 percent in 2010 for a second straight year, because of adverse weather in the producing nations.Did Government of India ever though to stock piling this product knowing well that onion could be avoided but for Indian kitchen cooking oil is a must.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has raised interest rates six times in a year, the most by any central bank in Asia. China asked banks to set aside more reserves six times and raised interest rates twice in 2010. Monetary action alone won’t help cool food prices. “The world may have to live with higher food prices a little longer as there’s too much cheap money chasing too few goods,” he said. “The government will be forced to go hammer and tongs to keep prices under check.”
We however agree that the the government is just an enabling body. Basu said , there are little local bodies taking decisions, there are private players taking decisions, farmers taking decisions... Government can give signals, can intervene strategically to keep the situation as much under control as possible. Of course he is correct but as an enabling body it is the mundane duty of the government to coordinate all these channels.
He said movement of onion, whose price rise resulted in surge in inflation, should be facilitated to bring down rates. "I am not denying that there are occasions when slightly earlier moves could have been made, no two ways about that." ,Basu agreed
Basu, however, cautioned against using any blunt instrument like arbitrary fixing of prices to tame exceptionally high prices, as such a move results in shortage of commodities and retard growth. We are entirely in agreement with Basu. But let the first stop be taken locally to control unscrupulous traders and hoarder and cartel of fish market at least for Assam
---------------------------------------------------------------------
.
INFLATION MAY DESTABILISE SOCIO POLITICAL SITUATION IN INDIA
There is a strong possibility that the rising inflation may destabilize socio-political situation of the country sooner than later. Soaring onion and other vegetables’ prices led to a sharp rise in inflation at 18.32 per cent for the week ended December 25, a development that may prompt the Reserve Bank to tighten monetary policy to check further escalation in commodity costs.
Food inflation jumped up by 3.88 percentage points from 14.44 per cent recorded in the previous reporting week, and edged closer to the high level of 19.90 per cent, last witnessed a year ago. The rise in food inflation has been mainly on account of 58.58 per cent rise in prices of vegetables in the wholesale market. While the average inflaton on National level is around 19% the actual rte of inflation in North-east is more than 20% already. Our research revealed that cost of food products in Assam are much higher than in Kolkata , Madras and Hyderabad and marginally higher even than in Delhi and Bombay. Tinsukia district is the costliest district in food prices followed by Guwahati and Jorhat. While the cost of Onions in Kolkata is around Rs 55 a kg it is Rs 70 in guwahati.
Among the individual items, onion became dearer by 82.47 per cent on annual basis, while egg, meat and fish became costlier by 20.83 per cent, fruits by 19.99 per cent and milk by 19.59 per cent. The data further reveals that onion prices during the one week period ending December 25, rose by 23.01 per cent in the wholesale market. With food inflation accelerating, RBI may take more measures in its forthcoming quarterly review of the monetary policy on January 25. The central bank during 2010 had raised short-term key policy rates six times to
tame inflation. Meanwhile, in the non-food category, the prices of fibers and minerals have climbed by 35.53 per cent and 30.58 per cent, respectively.
Rising food prices will reflect on the monthly inflation data for December, scheduled for announcement on January 14. The overall inflation in November had come down to 7.75 per cent from 8.58 per cent a month ago but all indication now reflect that overall inflation during January 2011 would be much higher.
We have earlier also pointed out that it would be almost impossible to control inflation just by increasing the interest rate by RBI to contai9n money supply. The supply side must be tackled by Government effectively. During September itself it was known that that onion cultivation in Saurastra belt have failed. It was the responsibility of the Government to make necessary arrangement to import onions then itself. Should Agriculture Ministry took required steps on time present impasse would not have occurred.
A Minister of Government of India has commented that the basic inflation has been effected due to rise in price of Onion. Now it is impossible to take reform measures in diesel and gas. We are not convinced at all. Some time back it was crude oil which brought in inflation. Today Onion is the product which created inflation. Tomorrow it would be Metal and Dafter it would be milk that would create widespread inflation, if arguments of the Government is to be believed.
According to us inflation has been created due to Management failure of the government to maintain steady supply of commodities with proper planning. We should not forget the lesson of Indonesia that due to uncontrolled food inflation some years ago there was a great political upheaval and Suhurto had to abandon his position as the president. If inflation keeps on rising gneraly peace loving Indians may rise in revolt bringing in political uncertainty.
We appreciate the views of Kaushik Basu when he said that the increase in prices has tyo be tackled.True. But we cannot tackle it with blunt instruments; “it will lead to slowdown in Growth.” But what is way out ? Even if RBI increases the rate of interest to tackle inflation that would not result in better supply of onions. Pakistan is unreliable supplier. Then what is the way out? Either Government has to find out alternative source or people in general must stop depending on onions. After all onion is only a spice and garnishing and enriching agents for curries .It is not a food item like cereals and pulses. Onions do not stop hunger. Possible steps include price controls, subsidies for shoppers, a crackdown on hoarding and price gouging as well as a system where District Magistrates are made responsible for supply of a basket of food items. There are many people who avoid onions. Even mostly 65% population of Northeast does not usually use onions in their food preparation. It is impossible to understand how rise in price of onion can usher in general inflation of the basic products, as claimed by the central Government.
As a long term policy, we need to take a number of steps to improve the health of our economy. On top is the introduction of modern farming technologies, revamping of the public distribution system to do away with the loopholes which lead to pilferages and tackling subsides which take away a large portion of our revenues. Blaming non availability of onion, due crop failure, is only an excuse. The government lacked foresight in this instance. All this calls for strong foresight, planning for better implementation of economic reforms that need to be undertaken sooner than later.
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Food inflation jumped up by 3.88 percentage points from 14.44 per cent recorded in the previous reporting week, and edged closer to the high level of 19.90 per cent, last witnessed a year ago. The rise in food inflation has been mainly on account of 58.58 per cent rise in prices of vegetables in the wholesale market. While the average inflaton on National level is around 19% the actual rte of inflation in North-east is more than 20% already. Our research revealed that cost of food products in Assam are much higher than in Kolkata , Madras and Hyderabad and marginally higher even than in Delhi and Bombay. Tinsukia district is the costliest district in food prices followed by Guwahati and Jorhat. While the cost of Onions in Kolkata is around Rs 55 a kg it is Rs 70 in guwahati.
Among the individual items, onion became dearer by 82.47 per cent on annual basis, while egg, meat and fish became costlier by 20.83 per cent, fruits by 19.99 per cent and milk by 19.59 per cent. The data further reveals that onion prices during the one week period ending December 25, rose by 23.01 per cent in the wholesale market. With food inflation accelerating, RBI may take more measures in its forthcoming quarterly review of the monetary policy on January 25. The central bank during 2010 had raised short-term key policy rates six times to
tame inflation. Meanwhile, in the non-food category, the prices of fibers and minerals have climbed by 35.53 per cent and 30.58 per cent, respectively.
Rising food prices will reflect on the monthly inflation data for December, scheduled for announcement on January 14. The overall inflation in November had come down to 7.75 per cent from 8.58 per cent a month ago but all indication now reflect that overall inflation during January 2011 would be much higher.
We have earlier also pointed out that it would be almost impossible to control inflation just by increasing the interest rate by RBI to contai9n money supply. The supply side must be tackled by Government effectively. During September itself it was known that that onion cultivation in Saurastra belt have failed. It was the responsibility of the Government to make necessary arrangement to import onions then itself. Should Agriculture Ministry took required steps on time present impasse would not have occurred.
A Minister of Government of India has commented that the basic inflation has been effected due to rise in price of Onion. Now it is impossible to take reform measures in diesel and gas. We are not convinced at all. Some time back it was crude oil which brought in inflation. Today Onion is the product which created inflation. Tomorrow it would be Metal and Dafter it would be milk that would create widespread inflation, if arguments of the Government is to be believed.
According to us inflation has been created due to Management failure of the government to maintain steady supply of commodities with proper planning. We should not forget the lesson of Indonesia that due to uncontrolled food inflation some years ago there was a great political upheaval and Suhurto had to abandon his position as the president. If inflation keeps on rising gneraly peace loving Indians may rise in revolt bringing in political uncertainty.
We appreciate the views of Kaushik Basu when he said that the increase in prices has tyo be tackled.True. But we cannot tackle it with blunt instruments; “it will lead to slowdown in Growth.” But what is way out ? Even if RBI increases the rate of interest to tackle inflation that would not result in better supply of onions. Pakistan is unreliable supplier. Then what is the way out? Either Government has to find out alternative source or people in general must stop depending on onions. After all onion is only a spice and garnishing and enriching agents for curries .It is not a food item like cereals and pulses. Onions do not stop hunger. Possible steps include price controls, subsidies for shoppers, a crackdown on hoarding and price gouging as well as a system where District Magistrates are made responsible for supply of a basket of food items. There are many people who avoid onions. Even mostly 65% population of Northeast does not usually use onions in their food preparation. It is impossible to understand how rise in price of onion can usher in general inflation of the basic products, as claimed by the central Government.
As a long term policy, we need to take a number of steps to improve the health of our economy. On top is the introduction of modern farming technologies, revamping of the public distribution system to do away with the loopholes which lead to pilferages and tackling subsides which take away a large portion of our revenues. Blaming non availability of onion, due crop failure, is only an excuse. The government lacked foresight in this instance. All this calls for strong foresight, planning for better implementation of economic reforms that need to be undertaken sooner than later.
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Saturday, January 15, 2011
MEMOIR OF A FORGOTTEN INDIAN-AMERICAN FROM ASSAM
Thirty years ago, I was told by Jagdish Phukan, all time great Assamese Entrepreneur cum visionary writer,’ had Amrit been staying back in Assam the state would have transformed into a most livable place in the country’. The remark of Phukan was a personal assessment on his great friend who has been forgotten by most Assamese by now ! The conversation veered round our state when I escorted ,in seventies of last century, the then American Ambassador to India in a visit to Kaziranga and stopped over for a couple of hours in Kamrup Komplex to dine. Amrit was none other than Harvard educated Amrit Baruah who left Assam, in search of mythical El Dorado, back in fifties to USA but could not snap the emotional umbilical chord with his state even now, despite having American citizenship.
Dr. Amrit Baruah, who taught in Yale university, now has penned down yet another book – Perhaps a memoir- which is worth its weight in Gold that is capable of inspiring the new generation Assamese youth to empower themselves. Amrit went to the same Middle school, MCME, at Guwahati where most of us studied later. His dear classmate and fierce competitor was Prof. Binoy Tamuli .Once Tamuli sir, who himself was a great student, intellectual and teacher told us that he could not top the class till Amrit left Guwahati.
It's never too early or too late to write one’s memoir. As for the difference between memoir and autobiography, I think, an autobiography is an all inclusive look at life, a memoir would look at a smaller part or parts. Life is full of stories and a memoir is a gift you can leave behind, a legacy when you're no longer around to answer questions. Fortunately Amrit is alive and kicking even now. Being an author, an educator, and a workshop leader he would be available to us to answer our queries of life.
In fact his recent book, on sixty years back America , has made an excellent reading. While writing on America, especial on Boston, he returned time and again to Kolkata, Shillong, and Assam, in his reflections. America was not the same then as it is now. America did just emerged ,in fifties of last century, as a new super power militarily and economically and opened up its door for brilliant people all over the world. Unlike now, there were very few Indian occupying the top positions in universities, corporations and in Scientific Centers. Apartheid then was the rule of the day Dr. Martin Luther King was not a martyr then. Under those circumstances what Amrit saw, found, experienced and realized was the theme of his new chronicle. Can it be called memoir, novel or autobiography or a leaf of history?
A memoir is a beacon of light sent out to illuminate the journey of life for others. Writing a memoir invites author to encounter his “Real Selves” on the page and guide the reader through his journey from innocence to understanding. Amrit as a writer has done that very capably. The book blends intensely private event with that of public affairs and that is the most significant part of the expression which would appeal to the readers most. It is almost a creative non fiction story telling efforts. The book has an excellent storyline mixed with history where persons from Nehru, to Nixon and Robert Frost to Suzuki traverse. Of course, the book has the character of historical value, without being a book of history. In the book, while Amrit expresses himself with the spirit of a liberated American yet reflecting the sensitivity of an ethnic Assamese Indian. The first chapter of the book starts with Amrit’s preparation to visit USA in 1952……
On the evening before his departure, Amrit went for a walk with Chitra near Happy valley, shillong of then Assam. He was working in Shillong , and later resigned. While taking a stroll that evening both remained silent for while. It was Chitra who broke the silence with pains in her words ,”I think of your departure and cry myself to sleep…” Amrit was silent but he felt like crying too. .The description of their impending separation reads like Novel in verse. Amrit wrote ”For the first time in my life, I felt that lights also cried”. Finally Chitra and Amrit spent that night quietly .In anguish, he wanted to reverse his decision to visit USA but saw the bridge linking his return path completely devastated by fire…. The second chapter superbly depicted his unsettled mind during those Days. His aspiration and frustration reflected in his senseless globe tottering spree. This would have been the case for any young persons leaving his home town keeping aside his loved one for the sake of his burning desire to reach high and higher achievements of life.. The middle class mentality to constantly aspire to reach greater height, despite struggling circumstances, helped Amrit to qualify for Master and Doctorate degree in public administration in universities of Boston. and Harvard . He taught in the University of Maryland, after his first spell in Yale. He ultimately worked in the field of Mental health and community organization.
Born , raised and initially educated in Assam Amrit later studied in presidency College, of Kolkata. He worked in jute Mills of Bengal and later in Labour Department of Assam for a while before snapping all relations with corporate and governmental services. Amrit Baruah was one of the most dynamic minds Assam has ever produced in late twenties, of last century.
Writing a memoir requires that we select our vignettes from many stories and memories, so learning techniques helps to make this process easier and helps the writer focus on the most important stories and themes. Amrit Barua has exactly done that and divided his experiences of America into eleven eventful chapters. His work did not only make inspired readings it also helped to empower younger generation to think big, no matter what be the economic condition of persons concerned. His experience as a community organizer in South Philadelphia for “coloured people” would be an eye opener for all of us.
He wrote passionately on poet Amiya chakrvarty whom he met in 1940 as a fresher at Calcutta and later in Boston as a professor of comparative Religion and literature. The information given in this chapter would be most valuable for the student of history and literature. It is in America he first encountered a spiritual Guru who brought peace of mind during his tormented time.
How did Amrit view America? In his words “My America was a net work of people and not the vast net work of super highways connecting towns and cities. the peaks and valleys that have glowed in my experience were the peaks and valleys in relationship and in the lives of those people.”
According to an intellectual friend of mine “We all are living stories, we carry them in our bodies and they haunt our dreams’. Many writers worry whether they should write their memories, since they’re also the stories of others that reveal family secrets and hidden truths. What about Amrit’s view on the stories of life? He confirmed that all of his stories in America are not the same that he had carried from India. He had written new stories for his life in America but there have been supplements, appendices However, our research has shown that writing stories helps to put the past in perspective and creates a path of forgiveness for ourselves and others; writing is a powerful way to witness our own lives. Weaving back and forth as both the character “I” and the narrator in a story is an integrative process that transforms us through the process of writing. Amrit’s memoir almost ended with a request from Chitra, girl friend from India ,to “settle down”. He finally ended his book with a story about Daisy, his new found friend during his Boston days and how in most crucial time he lost her “.She also disappeared from the life of someone who had hurt her deeply ,trying to help her because he had come to care a lot for her.” Amrit ended. Was it a tragedy ? Was it a Memoir? Or is it a historical document? I do not know what it actual is. But I am sure it is one of the most empowered creative writing. I am feeling its sensation even now!
So, what makes a compelling memoir? I believe that in order to become a bestseller, a memoir must have a strong storyline. That means that there is a beginning, middle, and end to the events that are recounted in the book. Examples of breakout memoirs with clear timelines are Isak Dinesen's Out of Africa, where the author, Danish baroness, Karin von Blitzen-Finecke, describes the political and emotional barriers she faced while trying to build a coffee farm in Kenya, and Before Night Falls, by Reinaldo Arenas, the rebellious and flamboyant Cuban poet and playwright, who describes both his early years as a homosexual artist under the Castro regime, including his imprisonments and escapes, and his last days as an exile in the United States. “My experiment with Truth” of Mahatma Gandhi and Nehru’s “Discovery of India” are fine example of best Memoir of our time. I have no hesitation to place Amrit Baruah”America Sixty years Age: An Indian’s Story” in the same category!
Where do we get this book? We need to send e- mail to ‘seribaanbooks@gmail.com’
______________________________________________________
Dr. Amrit Baruah, who taught in Yale university, now has penned down yet another book – Perhaps a memoir- which is worth its weight in Gold that is capable of inspiring the new generation Assamese youth to empower themselves. Amrit went to the same Middle school, MCME, at Guwahati where most of us studied later. His dear classmate and fierce competitor was Prof. Binoy Tamuli .Once Tamuli sir, who himself was a great student, intellectual and teacher told us that he could not top the class till Amrit left Guwahati.
It's never too early or too late to write one’s memoir. As for the difference between memoir and autobiography, I think, an autobiography is an all inclusive look at life, a memoir would look at a smaller part or parts. Life is full of stories and a memoir is a gift you can leave behind, a legacy when you're no longer around to answer questions. Fortunately Amrit is alive and kicking even now. Being an author, an educator, and a workshop leader he would be available to us to answer our queries of life.
In fact his recent book, on sixty years back America , has made an excellent reading. While writing on America, especial on Boston, he returned time and again to Kolkata, Shillong, and Assam, in his reflections. America was not the same then as it is now. America did just emerged ,in fifties of last century, as a new super power militarily and economically and opened up its door for brilliant people all over the world. Unlike now, there were very few Indian occupying the top positions in universities, corporations and in Scientific Centers. Apartheid then was the rule of the day Dr. Martin Luther King was not a martyr then. Under those circumstances what Amrit saw, found, experienced and realized was the theme of his new chronicle. Can it be called memoir, novel or autobiography or a leaf of history?
A memoir is a beacon of light sent out to illuminate the journey of life for others. Writing a memoir invites author to encounter his “Real Selves” on the page and guide the reader through his journey from innocence to understanding. Amrit as a writer has done that very capably. The book blends intensely private event with that of public affairs and that is the most significant part of the expression which would appeal to the readers most. It is almost a creative non fiction story telling efforts. The book has an excellent storyline mixed with history where persons from Nehru, to Nixon and Robert Frost to Suzuki traverse. Of course, the book has the character of historical value, without being a book of history. In the book, while Amrit expresses himself with the spirit of a liberated American yet reflecting the sensitivity of an ethnic Assamese Indian. The first chapter of the book starts with Amrit’s preparation to visit USA in 1952……
On the evening before his departure, Amrit went for a walk with Chitra near Happy valley, shillong of then Assam. He was working in Shillong , and later resigned. While taking a stroll that evening both remained silent for while. It was Chitra who broke the silence with pains in her words ,”I think of your departure and cry myself to sleep…” Amrit was silent but he felt like crying too. .The description of their impending separation reads like Novel in verse. Amrit wrote ”For the first time in my life, I felt that lights also cried”. Finally Chitra and Amrit spent that night quietly .In anguish, he wanted to reverse his decision to visit USA but saw the bridge linking his return path completely devastated by fire…. The second chapter superbly depicted his unsettled mind during those Days. His aspiration and frustration reflected in his senseless globe tottering spree. This would have been the case for any young persons leaving his home town keeping aside his loved one for the sake of his burning desire to reach high and higher achievements of life.. The middle class mentality to constantly aspire to reach greater height, despite struggling circumstances, helped Amrit to qualify for Master and Doctorate degree in public administration in universities of Boston. and Harvard . He taught in the University of Maryland, after his first spell in Yale. He ultimately worked in the field of Mental health and community organization.
Born , raised and initially educated in Assam Amrit later studied in presidency College, of Kolkata. He worked in jute Mills of Bengal and later in Labour Department of Assam for a while before snapping all relations with corporate and governmental services. Amrit Baruah was one of the most dynamic minds Assam has ever produced in late twenties, of last century.
Writing a memoir requires that we select our vignettes from many stories and memories, so learning techniques helps to make this process easier and helps the writer focus on the most important stories and themes. Amrit Barua has exactly done that and divided his experiences of America into eleven eventful chapters. His work did not only make inspired readings it also helped to empower younger generation to think big, no matter what be the economic condition of persons concerned. His experience as a community organizer in South Philadelphia for “coloured people” would be an eye opener for all of us.
He wrote passionately on poet Amiya chakrvarty whom he met in 1940 as a fresher at Calcutta and later in Boston as a professor of comparative Religion and literature. The information given in this chapter would be most valuable for the student of history and literature. It is in America he first encountered a spiritual Guru who brought peace of mind during his tormented time.
How did Amrit view America? In his words “My America was a net work of people and not the vast net work of super highways connecting towns and cities. the peaks and valleys that have glowed in my experience were the peaks and valleys in relationship and in the lives of those people.”
According to an intellectual friend of mine “We all are living stories, we carry them in our bodies and they haunt our dreams’. Many writers worry whether they should write their memories, since they’re also the stories of others that reveal family secrets and hidden truths. What about Amrit’s view on the stories of life? He confirmed that all of his stories in America are not the same that he had carried from India. He had written new stories for his life in America but there have been supplements, appendices However, our research has shown that writing stories helps to put the past in perspective and creates a path of forgiveness for ourselves and others; writing is a powerful way to witness our own lives. Weaving back and forth as both the character “I” and the narrator in a story is an integrative process that transforms us through the process of writing. Amrit’s memoir almost ended with a request from Chitra, girl friend from India ,to “settle down”. He finally ended his book with a story about Daisy, his new found friend during his Boston days and how in most crucial time he lost her “.She also disappeared from the life of someone who had hurt her deeply ,trying to help her because he had come to care a lot for her.” Amrit ended. Was it a tragedy ? Was it a Memoir? Or is it a historical document? I do not know what it actual is. But I am sure it is one of the most empowered creative writing. I am feeling its sensation even now!
So, what makes a compelling memoir? I believe that in order to become a bestseller, a memoir must have a strong storyline. That means that there is a beginning, middle, and end to the events that are recounted in the book. Examples of breakout memoirs with clear timelines are Isak Dinesen's Out of Africa, where the author, Danish baroness, Karin von Blitzen-Finecke, describes the political and emotional barriers she faced while trying to build a coffee farm in Kenya, and Before Night Falls, by Reinaldo Arenas, the rebellious and flamboyant Cuban poet and playwright, who describes both his early years as a homosexual artist under the Castro regime, including his imprisonments and escapes, and his last days as an exile in the United States. “My experiment with Truth” of Mahatma Gandhi and Nehru’s “Discovery of India” are fine example of best Memoir of our time. I have no hesitation to place Amrit Baruah”America Sixty years Age: An Indian’s Story” in the same category!
Where do we get this book? We need to send e- mail to ‘seribaanbooks@gmail.com’
______________________________________________________
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
SHARE MARKET BELOW TWENTY THOUSAND AND GOING DOWN AGAIN
The sensex went below Twenty thousand mark again on 20th October,2010. People have become apprehensive of the market behaviour. But to us it is a very significant sign.During September,after a long time, most middle class investors were smiling.The smile vanished as soon as the market hit the 19,995 mark after Durga Puja . The share market did touch twenty thousand mark during September 2010 after January 2008. Many asked us if it was the beginning of a bull market after a breather ? The flood gates of telephone calls started pouring in from our readers. “What should I do? I have doubled the amount. Should I redeem it or keep the money invested”? My reply to young investors was to stay invested if they do not want the money for next four years. There would be correction but again the market would go up. For seniors, whose risk appetite are low, they need to switch money to liquid fund and park the money for a while to invest when market correct after sometime. Another gentleman asked “Can I redeem the money and keep it in debt fund for a while and reinvest when market goes down”? It is a good idea no doubt, but if money is kept invested in Debt fund you cannot shift to another fund within one year without paying exit load. So if you redeem it now keep in saving bank or in liquid fund so that you can switch moment market goes down. The pessimism in the investment community is understandable as markets are nowhere near being called cheap. The price to earnings (PE) ratios are well over 22-23 and the continued fund flows has made sure the selling pressures from domestic fund houses hasn't been a deterrent for bulls. The new action on rep rate by RBI would also hit the Mutual Fund market, Debt funds and MIPs, which in turn would affect the senior citizens.
There is a strong possibility of 10% to 15% correction of market post Dewali. But investors need not worry . By 2011 it would jump back to new height. Be prepared. Save money and sooner market corrects invest immediately.
According to mutual fund industry sources, the selling pressures from domestic institutions have been on account of redemption pressures from individual investors.
In fact, individual investor behaviour has been that of caution in the last two years. Having been caught on the wrong foot in 2008, the small investor is in no mood to think long-term . As a result, during every uptrend many have been quick to encash profits or cut down losses (those who built portfolio in 2007-08 ). In the process, they failed to ride on the good market mood of the last few years.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty crossed a landmark each during the early session of trading on Monday. While the Sensex breached the 19,500 level, the Nifty crossed 5,800 marks on strong industrial output numbers from Asian and the US economies. But keep it in Mind that P/E ratio is not as high as it was during January 2008. At that time P/E ratio was 28. So there is actually still steam there and market may go up further. The market is sure to correct as soon as liquidity would come down.
At 11 am on Monday, the Sensex was 288 points up at 19,088, while the Nifty was 85 point up at 5,725. Banking stocks showed the sharpest jump in the early session as BSE Bankex and Bank Nifty had risen by close 3 per cent at 11 am. The small and mid cap stocks, however, lagged both the Nifty and the Sensex.
This rally is liquidity driven and is not fundamental driven alone. The participation from retail investors of the country is minimal. They remained hesitant even now to invest. Of course, there is a strong possibility of a deep correction at any time fro 10 to 20% at any time. So our advice to hesitant lot is to keep away from equity mutual fund. Perhaps they can invest in Long term MIPs where return is around 9 to 12% from time to time. There are three good funds in this segment according to value research, Birla sunlife MIP .5, Reliance MIP and HDFC MIP. These funds have got 5 to 25% equity and balance is in debt. My personal favourites are HDFC and Reliance MIP for retired person. HDFC MIP has paid in 71 times dividend in 77 months. The average annual dividends for last six years are around 11%, much more than bank FD, Company FD and SCSS but with little risk.
My sincere advice to our readers is not to invest any more once the sensex reaches 20,000 marks or little lower. That would be time to redeem the investment if they have earned good profit and have completed at least one year or more. Keep your money handy to invest when market goes down. There is a strong possibility of correction. Invest all the money when correction set in. People who have done STP or SIP do not have to worry at all. They should keep on investing while share market goes down. The long term investors should not be afraid of. They would surely make money.
Dinesh Thakkar, chairman and managing director, Angel Broking said: “Strong IIP numbers, better than expected month of July 2010 fired the bourse, which inched up to cross the 19,000 mark. Going forward, with the Agriculture growth accelerating on back of good monsoons, which along with the robust growth in the manufacturing and the services sector should aid Indian economy to deliver an 8.5 per cent GDP growth in FY2011.”
We need to understand that share market is a risky field and correction is inevitable. Warren buffet makes money because the share market is a volatile field and he enters the market when others fly away. He invests in companies whose functioning he understand well. It is impossible for common people to understand so it would be wise to depend on their personal financial advisers always. Investors need to study well the money magazine and business pages of news papers and form their own opinion. On the flip side the key concern area inflation is also likely to moderate as we go forward, resulting in most of the monetary tightening measures being front ended. This along with the strong earnings growth momentum, wherein the Sensex earnings are expected to grow at a 18 per cent CAGR over FY2010-12, the Indian equities would continue to be sweet spot and continue to gradually move upwards in the long run. It short and medium term there could be correction.
It is necessary for senior citizen to understand that they need not invest all the money in equity related instrument . They can invest only 20 to 30% money in equity. The balance money could be kept invested in PPF, SCSS and Banks FD and long term debt fund. While investing in equity they should invest mostly in balanced fund like HDFC prudence or Reliance balanced fund. They can invest also in MIP of HDFC and Reliance or in Birla.
Younger readers can take risk and can invest a larger amount in equity. But they too need not put all the eggs in one basket. The good diversified funds are IDFC premier equity, HDFC equity and top 200 beside Reliance growth and Birla Dividend yield.
Asian equity markets also rose in September on the back of strong economic data in China and the United States . The news on agreement among global banking regulators to implement stricter Basel III norms also stoked positive sentiments in the market.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei average rose 1.4 per cent, while the MSCI index of Asian shares outside Japan was up 1.6 per cent as strong economic numbers boosted investors’ confidence. India growth story is taking shape and this is the time our readers should take advantage of the share market of the country. One thing must be kept in mind that patience is the most r4quired skill if investors wants make money. Be a long term player always. Redeem your funds whenever you make more than 30% return. Keep it aside for sometime to re invest when market goes down. Rakesh Jhunjunwals said he enjoys when market goes down because then only he would be able to make money in future.
________________________
There is a strong possibility of 10% to 15% correction of market post Dewali. But investors need not worry . By 2011 it would jump back to new height. Be prepared. Save money and sooner market corrects invest immediately.
According to mutual fund industry sources, the selling pressures from domestic institutions have been on account of redemption pressures from individual investors.
In fact, individual investor behaviour has been that of caution in the last two years. Having been caught on the wrong foot in 2008, the small investor is in no mood to think long-term . As a result, during every uptrend many have been quick to encash profits or cut down losses (those who built portfolio in 2007-08 ). In the process, they failed to ride on the good market mood of the last few years.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty crossed a landmark each during the early session of trading on Monday. While the Sensex breached the 19,500 level, the Nifty crossed 5,800 marks on strong industrial output numbers from Asian and the US economies. But keep it in Mind that P/E ratio is not as high as it was during January 2008. At that time P/E ratio was 28. So there is actually still steam there and market may go up further. The market is sure to correct as soon as liquidity would come down.
At 11 am on Monday, the Sensex was 288 points up at 19,088, while the Nifty was 85 point up at 5,725. Banking stocks showed the sharpest jump in the early session as BSE Bankex and Bank Nifty had risen by close 3 per cent at 11 am. The small and mid cap stocks, however, lagged both the Nifty and the Sensex.
This rally is liquidity driven and is not fundamental driven alone. The participation from retail investors of the country is minimal. They remained hesitant even now to invest. Of course, there is a strong possibility of a deep correction at any time fro 10 to 20% at any time. So our advice to hesitant lot is to keep away from equity mutual fund. Perhaps they can invest in Long term MIPs where return is around 9 to 12% from time to time. There are three good funds in this segment according to value research, Birla sunlife MIP .5, Reliance MIP and HDFC MIP. These funds have got 5 to 25% equity and balance is in debt. My personal favourites are HDFC and Reliance MIP for retired person. HDFC MIP has paid in 71 times dividend in 77 months. The average annual dividends for last six years are around 11%, much more than bank FD, Company FD and SCSS but with little risk.
My sincere advice to our readers is not to invest any more once the sensex reaches 20,000 marks or little lower. That would be time to redeem the investment if they have earned good profit and have completed at least one year or more. Keep your money handy to invest when market goes down. There is a strong possibility of correction. Invest all the money when correction set in. People who have done STP or SIP do not have to worry at all. They should keep on investing while share market goes down. The long term investors should not be afraid of. They would surely make money.
Dinesh Thakkar, chairman and managing director, Angel Broking said: “Strong IIP numbers, better than expected month of July 2010 fired the bourse, which inched up to cross the 19,000 mark. Going forward, with the Agriculture growth accelerating on back of good monsoons, which along with the robust growth in the manufacturing and the services sector should aid Indian economy to deliver an 8.5 per cent GDP growth in FY2011.”
We need to understand that share market is a risky field and correction is inevitable. Warren buffet makes money because the share market is a volatile field and he enters the market when others fly away. He invests in companies whose functioning he understand well. It is impossible for common people to understand so it would be wise to depend on their personal financial advisers always. Investors need to study well the money magazine and business pages of news papers and form their own opinion. On the flip side the key concern area inflation is also likely to moderate as we go forward, resulting in most of the monetary tightening measures being front ended. This along with the strong earnings growth momentum, wherein the Sensex earnings are expected to grow at a 18 per cent CAGR over FY2010-12, the Indian equities would continue to be sweet spot and continue to gradually move upwards in the long run. It short and medium term there could be correction.
It is necessary for senior citizen to understand that they need not invest all the money in equity related instrument . They can invest only 20 to 30% money in equity. The balance money could be kept invested in PPF, SCSS and Banks FD and long term debt fund. While investing in equity they should invest mostly in balanced fund like HDFC prudence or Reliance balanced fund. They can invest also in MIP of HDFC and Reliance or in Birla.
Younger readers can take risk and can invest a larger amount in equity. But they too need not put all the eggs in one basket. The good diversified funds are IDFC premier equity, HDFC equity and top 200 beside Reliance growth and Birla Dividend yield.
Asian equity markets also rose in September on the back of strong economic data in China and the United States . The news on agreement among global banking regulators to implement stricter Basel III norms also stoked positive sentiments in the market.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei average rose 1.4 per cent, while the MSCI index of Asian shares outside Japan was up 1.6 per cent as strong economic numbers boosted investors’ confidence. India growth story is taking shape and this is the time our readers should take advantage of the share market of the country. One thing must be kept in mind that patience is the most r4quired skill if investors wants make money. Be a long term player always. Redeem your funds whenever you make more than 30% return. Keep it aside for sometime to re invest when market goes down. Rakesh Jhunjunwals said he enjoys when market goes down because then only he would be able to make money in future.
________________________
GOLD IS A GREAT ASSET BUT DONOT PROVIDE UNLIMITED SECURITY
Gold is powerful asset from time immemorial. Even the world’s monetary system revolves around the Gold. The Gold standard has been the key for devising the monetary system of the world. The currency of individual country revolves around the Gold Standard. Yet Gold is not the best asset class though generally it is considered as the safe bet. In last 20 years the best asset class has been art forms and equity ranks next to it. In effect the gold is below equity next only to real estate. However, the Gold ETF had occupies a position higher than equity in last three years. But we need to keep it in mind that long term the position of Gold ETF would be behind Equity only.
Gold prices today seem unstoppable. They’ve reached levels that would have been unimaginable a few years ago and gold cheerleaders say they are on their way to levels that are unimaginable today.
When investors go and look for information on whether gold is still a good bet, there are experts who loudly proclaim that Gold is the only commodity which will save the financial crisis of the world. They recommend buying of Gold ETF or Gold ornaments so that during the financial deluge they would survive better than their neighbours. Many experts do advocate well-reasoned arguments supporting as to why the yellow metal prices would continue to move northwards. Gold is generally accepted by all. Hence demad of Gold is unending. There are shortages of Gold in the market and demand moves up as more and more countries would like to hoard it. There are many variations to these arguments, but basically, they all boil down to the age old theory of ‘safe haven’ t, viz. that investors are scared of the bleak future of stocks, bonds, currencies and all other kinds of financial investment. They are absolutely scared that there would be another financial crisis. To survive such financial catastrophe it would be desirable to act smart now itself and need to rush in to acquire an asset type that has a historical reputation of crating and protecting wealth in worst times.
Now a days it is not just the financial experts, but even the print and electronic media also carries stories and articles recommending gold as a significant chunk of the individual’s investment portfolio. They now days declared that the time has arrived when Gold needs to be considered as the savior during financial disaster. According to those experts days of Gold as a mainstream financial investment, have arrived .But we do not think so. We would like to forewarn our readers that gold is of course a valuable metal but cannot be considered as the savior of life during financial deluge. Or is it a hype only ? Will gold live up to the hype created by some of the fiscal experts? I do not think so .According Dhirendra Kumar, an honest and sincere expert on the field “the hype has now reached impressive levels. On the internet, it’s not difficult to find apparently sane analysts who say that gold could rise to four times today’s price in five years.” But does he believe it? I do not I am sure Dhirendra Kumar too does not believe.
Projections of two to three times today’s price levels in a year or two are commonplace. Is this a bubble? The gold of today is not the gold of old — a largely physical asset that was a safe haven in troubled times. The has turned into a commodity and is a paper asset too, with highly liquid and highly leveraged markets where derived proxies of gold trade in much larger quantities than any underlying demand. This bubble is likely to burst as was the case of Liquid Black Gold. The crude oil also crated a bubble few years back. Over the past few years, oil, copper, nickel, wheat took its turn in creating buble.We think this the turn of yellow metal to create bubble. We need to be aware of such a situation and try to salvage our own position before the Gold bubble is burst.
One Financial experts did say “in fact, gold is even more of a bubble because it is an inherently useless material, earning no dividends or interest. There’s no industrial consumption story like copper or nickel here, and unlike oil, there isn’t any danger of ‘peak gold’ laying waste to the world economy. Gold is the purest of all bubbles—where even the story being told by its proponents is that they expect its price to rise because everyone expects it to rise”. We do believe that Gold is valuable metal but do not believe that Gold can act the savior of humanity. It has never saved humanity during even great depression it would not save even now. Yes we can buy Gold metal for our ceremonies of future . We can at best invest in Gold surely only up to 10 percent of our total investing asset.
Of course the present bubble will continue, and brave persons can find this opportunity to milk yellow cow for all it is worth. Bubbles are, by definition, irrational and emotional. Due to psychological effect and due to trick of the traders gold’s price might go up phenomenally within a few years. But It is not worth taking the risk unless you are either fool or too intelligent to exit just before the bubble is burst. A few readers asked us whether it is worth taking the risk? My reply would be similar to an up country Economist who said “ if you invest in it today, have no illusions that you are putting away money for a rainy day”. Buying Gold more than your own needs would be actually a speculation. The buying of the yellow metal in large volume is only a madness of th4 market. And this madness may continue for a while. A day is not far off when this madness will end suddenly, and then the experts on yellow metal shall have to run away never to return back to the market. Our advice to our readers are be vigilant invest in Gold in moderation. It is a valuable product but it would neither make you super rich nor support you as the savior during financial deluge. Your portfolio should surely consist of Gold and Gold ETF but not more than 10% to 15% of your total asset.
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Gold prices today seem unstoppable. They’ve reached levels that would have been unimaginable a few years ago and gold cheerleaders say they are on their way to levels that are unimaginable today.
When investors go and look for information on whether gold is still a good bet, there are experts who loudly proclaim that Gold is the only commodity which will save the financial crisis of the world. They recommend buying of Gold ETF or Gold ornaments so that during the financial deluge they would survive better than their neighbours. Many experts do advocate well-reasoned arguments supporting as to why the yellow metal prices would continue to move northwards. Gold is generally accepted by all. Hence demad of Gold is unending. There are shortages of Gold in the market and demand moves up as more and more countries would like to hoard it. There are many variations to these arguments, but basically, they all boil down to the age old theory of ‘safe haven’ t, viz. that investors are scared of the bleak future of stocks, bonds, currencies and all other kinds of financial investment. They are absolutely scared that there would be another financial crisis. To survive such financial catastrophe it would be desirable to act smart now itself and need to rush in to acquire an asset type that has a historical reputation of crating and protecting wealth in worst times.
Now a days it is not just the financial experts, but even the print and electronic media also carries stories and articles recommending gold as a significant chunk of the individual’s investment portfolio. They now days declared that the time has arrived when Gold needs to be considered as the savior during financial disaster. According to those experts days of Gold as a mainstream financial investment, have arrived .But we do not think so. We would like to forewarn our readers that gold is of course a valuable metal but cannot be considered as the savior of life during financial deluge. Or is it a hype only ? Will gold live up to the hype created by some of the fiscal experts? I do not think so .According Dhirendra Kumar, an honest and sincere expert on the field “the hype has now reached impressive levels. On the internet, it’s not difficult to find apparently sane analysts who say that gold could rise to four times today’s price in five years.” But does he believe it? I do not I am sure Dhirendra Kumar too does not believe.
Projections of two to three times today’s price levels in a year or two are commonplace. Is this a bubble? The gold of today is not the gold of old — a largely physical asset that was a safe haven in troubled times. The has turned into a commodity and is a paper asset too, with highly liquid and highly leveraged markets where derived proxies of gold trade in much larger quantities than any underlying demand. This bubble is likely to burst as was the case of Liquid Black Gold. The crude oil also crated a bubble few years back. Over the past few years, oil, copper, nickel, wheat took its turn in creating buble.We think this the turn of yellow metal to create bubble. We need to be aware of such a situation and try to salvage our own position before the Gold bubble is burst.
One Financial experts did say “in fact, gold is even more of a bubble because it is an inherently useless material, earning no dividends or interest. There’s no industrial consumption story like copper or nickel here, and unlike oil, there isn’t any danger of ‘peak gold’ laying waste to the world economy. Gold is the purest of all bubbles—where even the story being told by its proponents is that they expect its price to rise because everyone expects it to rise”. We do believe that Gold is valuable metal but do not believe that Gold can act the savior of humanity. It has never saved humanity during even great depression it would not save even now. Yes we can buy Gold metal for our ceremonies of future . We can at best invest in Gold surely only up to 10 percent of our total investing asset.
Of course the present bubble will continue, and brave persons can find this opportunity to milk yellow cow for all it is worth. Bubbles are, by definition, irrational and emotional. Due to psychological effect and due to trick of the traders gold’s price might go up phenomenally within a few years. But It is not worth taking the risk unless you are either fool or too intelligent to exit just before the bubble is burst. A few readers asked us whether it is worth taking the risk? My reply would be similar to an up country Economist who said “ if you invest in it today, have no illusions that you are putting away money for a rainy day”. Buying Gold more than your own needs would be actually a speculation. The buying of the yellow metal in large volume is only a madness of th4 market. And this madness may continue for a while. A day is not far off when this madness will end suddenly, and then the experts on yellow metal shall have to run away never to return back to the market. Our advice to our readers are be vigilant invest in Gold in moderation. It is a valuable product but it would neither make you super rich nor support you as the savior during financial deluge. Your portfolio should surely consist of Gold and Gold ETF but not more than 10% to 15% of your total asset.
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