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Sunday, August 30, 2009

IMPACT OF INCOMETAX ON MIDDLE CLASS

This is the best time to plan for reduction of Income tax for the year. Though many people do not want to concede that during last three years income tax on middle class has come down considerably but it is a recorded fact. The recent budget has though not been able to enthuse many investors and corporate entities yet it has brought in certain changes in respect of personal taxes. It has also brought in a new dimension to the New Pension Scheme which is meant now for the common people of India. The impact of these two measures are far reaching. It would be imperative to discuss the implications of these two measures for the benefit of the tax payers and assesses now. From this month tax payers will be able to to pay income tax through ATM s also. The Corporation Bank has started the facility and all other banks would surely follow the system soon.

In what could be a major relief to Income tax payers the Government of India is proposing to impose only 10% tax up to an income of Rs 10 lakh.This is a proposal only for public discourse. Hope the Direct tax code becomes a law replacing IT Act of 1961. In that event middle class will be greatly benefited. This subject need detailed discussion and it would be done in a separate article later.


However it should be noted that Government of India desires that from next April all the persons , who do not have to pay any income tax, shall also have to submit" PAN CARD" to bank or any other authority , in case they have any interest earnings from Fixed Deposit. Till recently no senior citizen, who do not have taxable income, have to submit details of pan card to the bank or any other organization where money is kept in Fixed Deposit.

Despite criticism of opposition parties against low benefit of income tax, in actual practice over last three years personal income tax have come down considerably.During Last year ending March 2008 a person earning above Rs three lakhs annually had paid income tax of around Rs 50,000/ after availing all concessions-. During the current year ending March 2009 he has paid Income tax of around Rs twenty thousand only for the same annual income. In case the person maintains the same level of earning or little more during the year ending March 2010 and handles his savings carefully he might be able to take himself out of the personal Income tax ambit completely. With heavy reduction in tax his real income is going up in 2009-10, despite inflationary effect, for the first time in many years. The most people are not realising the effect due to high cost of commodities.

The recent budget has given good benefit to salaried persons whose annual salary is above Rs10,00,000. Now a days most of the senior executives earn income are around that figure only. Gone were the days when Vice President or a General Manger were getting Rs 50,000/- per month. Now a days an executive directors, General Mangers, Senior general mangers , vice president and Presidents get per month inclusive of Bonus around Rs 85 thousand to Rs one lakh per month and more. From this year they would not have to pay any surcharge on their earned income as such they would get a benefit of around Rs 3 lakh per year.This is a great benefit to the salaried person.

The snior citizens would be also happy for the exemption limit of the taxable income of the senior citizen has been enhanced. Earlier senior citizen did not poay tax if their annual income was within Rs Two lakh twentyfive thousand. per annuam . That means a senior citizen who had a monthly income of Rs Nineteen thousand had to to pay Income tax. Now , a senior citzen shall not be required to pay in come tax even if his earning is Twenty thousand per month or Rs two lakh forty thosuand annually. In case these senior citzen can save around Rs one lakh under 80C then he would not be required to pay income tax even if he earns little over Rs Twentyeight thousand per month. It means some of the retired Judges, retired senior burocrates and retired general Mangers of public sector and private sector undertaking would be out of Incometx ambit as most of the person's pension are around this limit. Naturally senior citizens are happy with the budget.

In many cases where both husband and wife were working and now retired and senior citizen they would have a better financial position than before. A chart is given below to show how new bduget has benefitted the senior citzen.



From the above chart it is apparent that earlier tax liability for senior citizen earning Rs Two lakh forty thousand was Rs 1545 /- annually. Now they will not have to pay any income tax if their income remain same.. In case they earn income amounting to Rs Three Lakh then only income tax would be payable by them amounting to Rs Six thousand one hundred eighty only annually or monthly around five hundred only .

The exemption limit of income tax for ladies has also gone up . A chart of income tax for the laides is also given below ;




From the above chart it is apparent that no lady shall have to pay any income tax, from this year, if her earning is around Rs one lakh ninety thousand per annum or around Rs 17,000 per month. In case they can save money under 80 c they would not be required to pay income tax even if they earn Two lakh ninety thousand per annum or Rs Twenty four thousand per month. This would mean any Government officials and private and public sector executives of middle level would hardly be required to pay any taxes. The new SDC, Police officers, Extra Assistance commissioners, Executive engineers drawing around Rs Twenty five thousand per month would not be required to pay any income tax if saving is planned properly under 80 c.

The budget has also given exemption to common male earning members of the society. The chart given below would show how the budget would impact the pocket of the common male tax payers.


From the above chart it is now apparent that any male income tax payers would have to pay no income tax from now onward till his earning exceeds Rs 1 lakh sixty thousand annually or Rs 13 thousand per month. In case, the same person can save money under section 80 c of IT Act they will not have to pay any taxes even if they earn Rs Two lakh sixty thousand annually or little above Rs twenty one thousand per month..


It is now apparent that if habit of saving is developed then income tax benefit is always going to be higher. I strongly recommend all young employees to save money under NPS for that would give them best benefit in future. We don't have to think only of today. If proper saving could be organized the future would be also brighter for the younger generation.The new Pension Scheme from now onward would be Exempt from IT provided the money taken out of the pension fund is deployed in annuity. This is a good concession which most of the people have forgotten to notice.
I however don't recommend for senior citizen any contribution to NPS. But in case they have still an operative PPF account then they should continue contributing there for that would give them the best benefit during their still older age. Now a days people generally live beyond eighty five years. They should provide for those age now for medical aid has become costly. The modern health scientists have predicted that human mortality in India would further decrease and most of the persons would now live well beyond Ninty by 2030. The health care would be vital during those years and saving for a healthy body, mind and soul would be most imperative then. If Direct Tax Code is implemented in due course of time perhaps the present finance Minister would get greatest blessings from Middle class.
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CREDIT CARD DEFAULT CAN BE REALISED FROM SALARY NOW

The Credit Card default has reached now such a limit that a new legal provision has been put on place to realise the dues from the salary of the cardholders. With the new provision on place the defaulting card holders have to be very cautious to save their name and the fame from now onward. Defaulting credit card holders may risk their credit worthiness too. Of course, it was also true that most Credit Card Companies used to realise, at the slightest pretext, their outstanding dues by applying strong arm tactics . There were volleys of protest against such uncivilised mannerism of the Credit card companies. Fortunately court debarred Credit card companies from using force and extra legal provisions but it also equipped the banks with legal provision to realise their legal dues from card holders . What is really a credit card ? What is the function of credit card ?

A credit card is a small plastic card and is a part of a system of payments issued to users by banking system. It is a card entitling its holder to buy goods and services based on the holders promise to pay for these goods and services. The issuer of the card grants a line of credit to the consumer (or the user) from which the user can borrow money for payment to a merchant or as a cash advance to the user, to be paid within a specific period of time as agreed. Working class should be aware that from now onward credit card default could be realised directly from salary payment.


The use of credit card is like a double edged sword. When used judiciously and with good intention it is helpful to users. When used recklessly it creates problem for the users. The payment of credit card must be made in time. Though credit card allows payment to be made slowly every month this facility should not be availed off , by salaried persons,as it is a very costly option.The interest charge for the outstanding due are generally more than 40%. The money kept in fixed deposit of bank is paid at the maximum rate of 9% interest now a days. Whereas for any outstanding amount of the credit card interest charged is around 40-%. So even if credit card is used the money should be paid immediately on receipt of the bill to be cost effective.
Recently two most important steps have been taken in respect of the credit card. The first, in case of credit card default the money can be deducted from the salary of the card holder and and the second, is the introduction of PIN number to save card holders from defrauding. These are two important steps,all credit card holds need to know, that have been introduced.

Perhaps by now most of credit card holders know that from the month of August a separate PIN Number would be required to use the credit card on line. This provision came in force as per directive of RBI. The most of the issuer bank has already made arrangement for this procedures. Now it is the responsibility of the credit card holders to apply for this PIn number from their respective bank. This method has been put on place so that fraud could be avoided. The credit card number could be stolen, copied and can remembered but Pin number would be known by only individual concerned .To ensure double safety this concept has been introduced. The card holders now need to apply for the same.

Some credit card users forget to pay their dues in time and dues to be paid multiplies fast. On non receipt of original and subsequent dues dues on time Credit card issuers at first keep on sending reminders and if no response is received the holders then deploy recovery agent, who are actually a gang of muscle power, to realise the due payments. In such situation credit card users face harassment and sometime get bodily injuries beside experiencing traumatic situation.

Sometime younger generation while trying to show off their purchasing power flash out their credit cards and buy goods and commodities and later fails to pay and there by inviting unnecessary trouble for themselves. A few years back an incident took place in Guwahati on misuse of credit card.. There were a group friends who, after graduating , found jobs in a few multinational companies selling white good products. After their office hours these friends used to meet in a rendezvous located near Christianbasti at G.S. Road. They used to enjoy in a nearby restaurant almost every evening after office hours and used to have innocent fun.

Rajib Bharadwaz and Dhiraj Borah, in the group, were two friends working in the same company. One evening when all the friends assembled Raijib' business acymen was discussed and everyone congratulated him for fulfill his annual sales target within six month's time. Rajib told his friends that a special Bonus would be paid for his achievement by the year end. All the friends congratulated him and ultimately pressurized him to throw a dinner party that night itself.. Rajib agreed to the party next week for he had no cash in his pocket then. But his friends were unrelenting and kept on demanding the party that night itself. Ultimately Dhiraz, being his colleague, agreed to use his credit card with an assurance that Rajib would pay him the money next week. Party continued and all the friends thanked Rajib. In due course of time when the bill came Rajib was away on tour. On his arrival Dhiraz gave him the bill and asked him to deposit the money next day as he was going out on tour. Rajib kept the bill with him and forgot later to send the payment to the credit card company.. The due date of payment expired and credit card issuer kept on sending reminders. when the company did not receive payment continuously for three months recovery agents arrived at Dhiraj's home. They insulted his both the parents and forced them not only to pay the amount but to handover their fees as penalty. Parents were shaken. Dhiraz was a regular payers of bills. He took up the matter with the bank but without any avail. Dhiraz then only realised the danger of using the facility of credit card emotionally. He realised it was not correct to flash out the credit card to pay the someone else dues. It was also not correct for him to hand over the bill for payment to someone else. He should have asked for the money next week as decided and pay the bill himself in due course. For his own fault he lost his money and his friend. The realisation came to him too late when already his parents were insulted.

The above incident was a true story. So all the young man should realise that credit and debit card are sacred instruments to be used with utmost care. It is not meant for making any style statement. Please don't let your credit and debit card number be known by anyone. There was another incident when even powerful man like Jyoti Basu was shaken when his DEBIT card was stolen by his security man and used. The person concerned was was later nabbed. So use your credit card , ATM card and Debit card with utmost caution.

Over the years the news of using muscle man in the garb of recovery agent by banks reached the Reserve Bank of India but no substantial steps could be taken. But court delivered judgment that Banks would be in their right to recover their dues of credit card if payment remain due for for long. They can take legal means to recover their dues but would not be able to use brutal force. The recovery agent would have not rights to talk to anyone other than the holder of the card. Despite those legal sanction many persons refrained from making timely payment of the credit card dues. The banks were feeling frustrated because it meant loss for them
Recently a provision has been made by the bank in case any employed person does not pay the credit card dues on time it would be possible for the banks to realise the amount from the salary of the person concerned. Now employed person should be aware of this provision. This may lead to not only the realisation of money from their salary but they may be defamed . Their credit rating may go down and ultimately it might create a black spot in their career. This fact was kept secret till now . The matter came to light when a bank has started using the provision legally.

ICICI bank will be the first bank to utilise this concept. While issuing credit card from now onward they would bind the holders in such a way that in case payments are not received during the due dates the bank would be in a position to approach their employers to deduct the dues from the salary legally and pay to the bank. This provision would be made legally foolproof and others banks are also expected follow the rule when issuing creditcard to holders.

Many educated people also once thought that most of the time dues of credit card can be avoided. But as the days passed by the non payment of credit card dues have been taken as an legal offense. In modern days provision of taking debt would be getting easier but for that credit rating of individual would be very important. From now onward before sanctioning Housing credit and car loan the banks would be demand credit rating of individual. In most of the developed countries such provision are most essential. In India, up till now Loans were easily available for the working persons but now onward even credit rating would be necessary. So every young persons must zealously protect their credit rating status from now onward, by preventing misuse of credit card.
It must be kept in mind that default in credit card payment not only bring bad name to non payer but may also destroy credit worthiness of the persons concerned. So now days beware of credit card default. Regular payers of credit card would have great advantage in building their credit worthiness.

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INDIA'S REVIVAL VIS-A-VIS AMERICAN ECONOMY

Just after and before the budget session, the Government of India’s Economic advisor as well as the Deputy Chairman of the planning commission in their various statements and interviews stated that though India’s economic parameter indicates possible upturn of economy yet it would not move on the faster tract till American and British economy revive from their recession. The question arises as to how bad or good the American economy is now? During my present trip to US I have tried to study the condition of the American economy and have been analysing how it is going to influence the economy of my home country. I found a dismal picture even now though many economist feel economy is slowly turning up for better. The application for H1 visa which were made in lakhs during last few years have come down to 36,000 from India against available quota of 60,000, currently during 2009.

It is not hearsay; it is the fact of broad daylight that American economy is still facing one of the worst down turn of the history. It is as bad as that of the great depression. The most people think it is worse because during that time no state was facing so much financial crunch as California is facing presently. Had California been a corporate entity it would have forced itself to declare as bankrupt. The situation is as bad that most people now hesitate to buy state bond even on premium. Warren buffet in his latest interview said that he is still optimist of the American economy. He, however, would not risk predicting a time and date. It may turn around within one and half years or take four years. But surely America would be back to normal power and prestige in near future. He would not hesitate even to buy value stock at 9000 Dow. Federal reserve said the American economy is doing better but admitted that health is not as much better as it expected .Legendary investor Warren Buffet’s expression is noteworthy : "The United States economy is now out of the emergency room and appears to be on a slow path to recovery,"

Recent data suggest economies of America and Europe are on mend but experts are not convinced that economies’ can stand on their own without crutches of Governmental massive help as yet. G. J. Sanghvi, a businessman friend of mine, from San Jose sent me a message last week that the American economy lost 467,000 jobs in June equal numbers in July and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.5% percent in a sobering indication that the most painful downturn since the Great Depression has yet to relinquish its hold. On July 5th the vice-president, Joe Biden, admitted that the White House had “misread how bad the economy was”. In January it had predicted that unemployment would peak at 9% without a fiscal stimulus and 8% with one. The $787 billion two-year stimulus is now law but unemployment stands at 9.5% and Barack Obama admitted. It has since dropped to 9.4% now in August.. The payments of stimulus money by government to enterprise have not been taken kindly by American people in general. They felt America being a capitalist country why the government should be allowed to be theowner of free enterprise. Some people have refused to buy cars of General motors for it has accepted Government money. In our country people expect everything from government. There is big difference in attitude of people in both the countries. Yet economies of both the countries are linked due to international trade effect. Even share markets have not yet been fully decoupled.

“The numbers are indicative of a continued, very severe recession” said Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh. “There’s nothing in here to show that the economy and the market are pulling out of the grip of recession.” Yet, I find stock market at Wall Street is moving ahead. It is good news for India for Indian stock market is coupled with Wall Street now. In India from a low of 13300 sensex it is moving forward now.
The $787 billion two-year stimulus is now law but unemployment stands at 9.4% ..I had the opportunity to read, at San Francisco, the latest monthly snapshot of the America’s job situation, released on Thursday (2nd July) by the Labor Department. It reinforced a consensus that high levels of unemployment are likely to remain for many months and perhaps years. That will almost surely increase the difficulties of finding work for millions of jobless people while limiting wages and working hours for those employed. I only hope the situation back home in our country don’t get effected so severely. For another month, manufacturing jobs disappeared, dipping by 136,000, while construction jobs shrank by 79,000 and retail by 21,000. Health care remained a rare bright spot, adding 21,000 jobs. Perhaps this is the only sector along with farming and Defense that is breathing easy.
The losses for June brought the tally of jobs shed since the beginning of the recession to 6.5 million — a figure equivalent to the net job gains over the previous nine years.
I want every sensible person to note the words of a famous economist of human resource and get set to plan for our own future to save ourselves from catastrophe. “This is the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all jobs growth from the previous business cycle,” Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the labor-oriented Economic Policy Institute in Washington, said in a research note. She called this fact “a devastating benchmark for the workers of this country and a testament to both the enormity of the current crisis and to the extreme weakness of jobs growth from 2000 to 2007.”
The figures for June did show signs that the pace of job losses is continuing to slow. From November to March — after the collapse of several prominent financial institutions — the labor market lost an average of 670,000 jobs each month. From April to June, the decline slowed to 436,000 a month.
Johan Maynard Keynes, once predicted ,as per Buffet, : "By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. . . .The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." In India though official inflation is going down the price of essential commodities are getting higher and higher. Unless government can bring down fiscal deficit,debt and actual inflation there may be temporary revivial of economy but there would be turmoil in the country for consumption as most people would remain marginaly hungry.
Of course we cannot survive without hoping for the best. My own feeling was that the situation back home was not so severe and there bound to be smarter recovery in India Still I do not believe that growth rate of the country would be 7.5% during this fiscal. According to my calculations I feel that India will progress in the path of recovery surely but very slowly. The stock market which saw an upturn from 8000 point sensex to 15000 point is bound to go down, for some time now onward. It was euphoria that brought up the share market. The market can not sustain for long on the basis of euphoria unless fundamentals improve. The silver line for our country is the higher saving rate compared to Western economy. Our weakness is export which is greatly affected due to recession abroad. Early this year, the US administration projected that the unemployment rate would peak near 8 percent with the stimulus in place. But joblessness is already well above that target now. The condition of India will improve surely but at snail’s space till consumption pattern of USA improves and Job creation starts.
Now, millions of households in US owe more to the mortgage lender than their house is worth. Millions more have exhausted their credit. The paycheck has returned as the primary source of spending. Yet, as the June jobs report reinforced, paychecks are eroding even for those who have jobs. The situation back home is surely better than above. But this is the time we need to think of handling our finance with utmost caution.
Mr. Obama himself has proposed a budget-balancing rule that he would have to break to inject more stimuli. "We've begun to put the brakes on this recession and ... the worst may be behind us," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address Saturday. He cited recent Labor Department report that showed a dip in unemployment, but said, "We must do more than rescue our economy from this immediate crisis. We must rebuild it stronger than before."
One thing is certain the mood of everyone that matter in US is positive. Depending on this positive attitude share market is reflecting upturn move. India will run faster once US starts turning around. The question is when? It can be in fourteen months or may be in four years, only time would dictate. The revival of economy would be there surely!

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Wednesday, June 3, 2009

MARKET VOLATILITY ENSURES BETTER RETURNS

During the Third week of May, after election results were announced, the share market has gone up. It is possible that market may come down soon. But that should not deter investor to stop buying equity. For the long run equity is the king and this is the time to invest as market goes down through systematic investment plan(SIP) in mutual fund.
According to an expert, volatility is the friend of astute investors. It is actually the volatility that would make you rich.

Prolonged bear phase is not welcome by new and uninformed investors. But astute investors always welcome volatility and bear phase in share market .According to Warren Buffet equity is the king in the long run. Why? Because, in the long term, the share market is bound to have fluctuations and volatility. The volatility ensures better return if invested with prudence. In case investors adhere to systematic investment plan and Systematic transfer plans he or she is sure to benefit. This is the point which most of the casual investors always ignore. For example, in case index would have remained static at 5900(from 2000 to 2004) none would have been able to make money. Since the sensex went down from 5900 to 2800(in 2002) and then again it climbed up to 5900 (in 2004) astute investors made lots of money. When market went down in 2002 people who continued to follow SIP route and kept on buying the units at lower cost they reaped great benefit. As market rebounded the investors were benefited because their cost of acquisition was much lower during the bear phase. So to be frank enough bear phase should not be looked down always. Investors of mutual fund must keep it in mind certain important points.

1 .Investors should not time the market always. Investment can be made at time .Only points to be remembered is buy in phased manner.

2. All the money at the disposal of investors should not be invested in equity. Depending on the age of investor and income of investor it should be invested proportionately in debt and equity.

3 The money required for day to day expenses should be invested in debt funds & bank fixed deposit.

4. The balance of investment in debt and equity should be changed as the years pass bye.
As investors advances in age more should money be allocated in fixed income and less should be earmarked in equity.

5. While share market recovers never invest lump sum money at one goes. It should be through SIP or through STP. My personal preference is STP. You can invest in lump sum only when you are sure bottom has been touched already. (This is very difficult to predict). Can you really predict the bottom? So avoid putting money all together.

Dhirendra Kumar , well known mutual fund expert recently said “Any investors who have followed the time honoured prudent advice would be sitting pretty today, largely unaffected by the current turmoil of 2008. He felt that the market value of your investments may be down today but since you do not need any of it for the years to come, it doesn’t really matter. Long before you will need the money it would have had a chance to grow again. (Personal Finance, The telegraphs, 3rd November).

The loss in front of the eyes of investor today is actually notional loss. This would be made good when market takes a turn for the Good. But where is the guarantee that market is going to rebound? In share market no body can predict the behavior of the market. There was no guarantee that market would touch the bottom similarly there is no
Guarantee that market would surely move up. But our experience reveals that market is going to go up sooner or later as there would be growth in the economy in the long term. If the world can recover from great depression in 1927 there is no reason why the turmoil of 2008 would not be able to be handled. No doubt time is difficult. Depression can be seen all around but efforts of all the authorities are also genuine to give a push for the growth of the economy.

I would like to quote the remark of Dhirendra kumar “Despite the crashes, equity is a far safer option over the long run. The real danger to your financial well being is not the market crash, but from the insidious effect of inflation’. Yes, equity is not really unsafe, what is really unsafe is our mentality and fear psychosis.

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Monday, May 25, 2009

INDIAN ECONOMY IS TURNING AROUND FOR GROWTH

Despite political uncertainty Indian economy is in the path of recovery from the recession. The engine for this growth is not IT sector but traditional basic sector of Steel and cement. A sudden robust performance of consumer and capital goods, a key barometer of activity, showed that there is generation of demand in the country. In view of above activities the Government India is insisting on world bodies like IMF to have greater shares of say in conducting the affairs of the IMF and the World Bank. If India’s political climate turns stable there is a strong possibility for her to don an aggressive new role in world bodies soon. The short-term outlook for the economy has improved significantly. But there is a glaring lack of faith in the longer term. The fall in March index of Industrial production is a pointer in this regards.
The recent data made available to us revealed that demand in India's hinterland is firm and is supporting a vast expanse of the economy. Cement sales have grown at near double-digit rates since November. The consumer goods sales have seen strong support from rural markets. While auto demand has firmed up recently after a disastrous December quarter. Most of the auto companies are bringing up new models of cars including European manufactures like Fiat, Volkswagen and Mercedes .The cement prices have gone up on increased demand from May. Some analysts say the robust growth in steel and cement sales as well as in manufacturing in recent months showed the worst maybe over for the economy. However it is still a matter of debate.
Wholesale price inflation shows demand has not fallen as anticipated and prices were holding firm. Despite such firm signal for growth the unemployment may not go down as the younger population is growing every year. The traditional industries have not been great employers. The generation of employment was faster in IT sector, garment sector, gems and jewelry sectors beside service sector which are yet to grow at a desired level. After a very poor march quarter, industrial output, which accounts for nearly a quarter of India's gross domestic product, has shown signs of recovery.
A few economists, of late, felt that stimulus packages brought in by the government since late last year, along with aggressive policy easing by the central bank, appears to be making an impact, given improved car sales and uptrend in cement and steel demand.
It is worth noting that savings and investment rates, which have reached close to 40 percent due to the structural changes in the economy. This would be able to sustain an investment rate of 35 percent. During the recent month it became clear that NRI are sending more money than before and so the foreign exchange reserves may slowly improve. This fact was revealed by none other than State Bank of India on 8th June.
The main stock index has gone up by more than 40% from its low of early March. FII bought $1.5 billion worth of shares in April and another $296 million recently, after heavy outflows in January and February. However my views are that the sensitive index is still not stable and share market may go further down. My gut feeling is that index may go further down to around 10,000 levels or below should political stability keeps slipping in coming days. Investors should be ready to accept the opportunity for long term investment.
According to well known ratings agency ICRA, the economy is likely to grow 6.5 to 7.5 percent in 2009/10 if the global economy comes out of the slump later this year. But according us the growth rate may not come up soon. We had forecast earlier that Indian’s growth would remain below 6.5% during the year. We stand by our forecast as government stimulus would take time to affect the broader economy of the country. However there is a strong possibility that by 2010 Indian economy would recover at a faster speed. We strongly feel that the high fiscal deficit of central and state governments, which according to some observers has reached nearly 10 percent of gross domestic product, could prove to be an obstacle to growth and undermine the Reserve Bank's aggressive rate cuts. Yet there is a silver lining in the sky. Monsoon is expected to be normal that might trigger better growth and possibilities of lower unemployment.
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THE IMPORTANCE OF BEING DR. MANMOHAN SINGH

“Do you know Dr. Man Mohan Singh,”asked Nakib Ahmed, a celebrity news caster of yester years and now advisor to Indian Chambers of Commerce, recently. Without bating an eyelid I replied that Dr. Man Mohan Singh, the economist, was known to me for years now. But I do not know him well as the prime Minister. To me he is a great human being , administrator and above all a welfare economist whose prime concern has always been the welfare of class and mass. He was born in a town, now in Pakistan in middle class family and saw poverty and suffering of people from a close quarter. Educated primarily in India and England he equipped himself as the most practical economist rather than a theoretician. I met him for the first time in early nineties when I was the Member secretary of the Bengal Chamber of Commerce and Industries of Assam Chapter. Under the president ship of H.P. Barooah, then Chief of Bengal Chamber a seminar was organized in Guwahati to asses and find out the ways and means to develop Assam Economically. Dr. Man Mohan Singh was invited to address the seminar. Dr. Singh, at that time was neither a finance Minister nor was the prime minister in waiting. But he remained a person of wisdom and world looked at him with reverence. He agreed to write a paper and address the gathering at our request. The seminar was held at Hotel Brahmaputra at Guwahati. His paper was one of the most important documents which underlined the growth potential of the state. At our request he agreed to hand over the paper for publication and for use in seminars and class rooms besides using in formulating policy document by government and non governmental organization. Pradyut Bordoloi, then a budding politician and professional media person organized to record the speech. During this seminar we met Man Mohan Singh closely and were awestruck at his simplicity and sincerity of purpose. We never felt that this was the gentlemen who steered clear India from a debt laden country to a prosperous nation to be recognized by the developed world.

During that time the intellectuals of United Kingdom and some of the critics of labour party famously stated that it would be appropriate to appoint a person of Man Mohan Singh’s intellect to head the finance ministry of United Kingdom. The finance minister of Great Britain was Gordon Brown at that time who is the Prime Minister of Great Britain now. In spite of such remark of his critics in United Kingdom, Gordon Brown had great admiration for Dr. Man Mohan Singh. During recent meeting of G 20 Prime Minister Brown should greatest courtesy to Man Mohan Singh and requested him to speak in his dinner hosted in honour of visiting dignitaries of the world. Only other person who was invited to speak was Barrack Obama of USA. Man Mohan Singh respected not because he is the prime Minister of India but because he is a wise person. His personality proved the age old saying that “a king is respected within his country but a wise man is respected out side his country too”.

During the run up to the election the successive opinion polls revealed that most of the people of the country favour Man Mohan Singh to be the next prime Minister of India. The result of opinions polls expressed that preference for Advani, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi comes much later. Why people of India like to have a professional rather than a hardcore politicians as the next prime minister. This is the most hotly debated issue of the time now. And in this in quest itself is hidden the secret of Dr. Man Mohan Singh’s importance.

Though L. K. Advani calls him a “Weak Prime Minister” yet ordinary citizens prefer an “Upright Humanitarian” to be their next Prime Minister. Today Public feel that hardcore politicians have damaged the fabric of the country and a gentleman would be a better bet if they have choice. This is where the importance of being Man Mohan Singh lies. People prefer him because he is an upright and a kind person. However, unfortunately public have no direct say in preferring the Prime Minister in a parliamentary Democracy.

This is for the first time in Indian politics the parliament may get fractured representation of people and parties making it almost impossible to combine both ideology and practical politics together. Communist may be willing to back up Congress yet may ask for another choice for the Prime minister. But that would not diminish the importance of being the Man Mohan Singh. In this election no parties may get required numbers to form Government and may loose their pride of place hitherto enjoyed. But for Man Mohan Singh it would be the “win- win situation”. How?

Man Mohan Singh remains the M.P. If congress could form the government he would be the first choice for P.M. In unlikely circumstances if Congress needs to sacrifice him or should he listen to his inner conscience and opt out, then also two most important organizations are waiting for his blessings. Those two organizations would like him to join them as their Mentor, if rumor is to be believed... The first one is IMF and second one is World Bank. In any case it would be the victory for the country! This is where the importance of being the Man Mohan Singh lies!

To end the article I quote the remark of Bipul saikia, the plasma Scientist, who stood in queue with Man Mohan Singh as his next person to vote in recently concluded election “it was a great feeling and a wonderful experience to share the same queue waiting to vote. Man Mohan Singh greeted us all with a namaskar. it was a nice coincidence that I will never forget in my life”. Yes, this is being the Man Mohan Singh, the gentleman per excellence and strongest advocate of humane behavior. People love him and respect him not merely because he is the P.M. but he is a decent person of integrity and courtesy.
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